I know with all the drama that has surrounded the selection of Sarah Palin and the constant barrage of lies at the Republican National Convention it has become easy to start looking at things a little more pessimistically. I don't blame you. It's very hard to watch speaker after speaker stand behind the RNC podium and spout pure falsehoods about Obama and the Democratic party in general. It's even more difficult to stomach when these lies go relatively unquestioned by the media, where they instead choose to fawn over speeches and potential "game changers." The convention was, admittedly, fantastic at rallying the GOP base and got die-hard Republicans fired up. They ate Sarah Palin up. The GOP base is ready to go!
Just one problem: McCain/Palin CANNOT win with just their base! I'll talk some more over the fold.
A Pew Research poll that came out August 22nd highlighted the party identification edge Democrats have. Here is the breakdown:
Dem - 37%
Rep - 28%
Ind - 35%
That's the highest lead in party ID the Democrats have seen since 1992, and the lowest the GOP has seen since the same year.
When "leaners" are included, the advantage this election is astounding:
Dem - 51%
Rep - 38%
That's the highest Democrats have seen since, you guessed it, 1992. The lowest for the GOP since 1992 as well. Also, for the 2000 election it was Dem - 46%, Rep - 42%. For the 2004 election? Dem - 47%, Rep - 44%. The inherent edge Democrats (and specifically Obama/Biden) have this election cannot be understated.
Feel better now? What about Sarah Palin, though? That changes everything. All these stats go out the window because she is a game changer. Well, a recent poll released September 3rd by Gallup shows that after Palin's selection when compared to August numbers, McCain gained +5 in white Republican women, while only +1 with white Republican men. Obama, on the other hand, has gained with both Democrats AND Independents. This poll showed +7 with Independent men, +5 with Independent women, +8 Democratic men, +8 Democratic women.
Clearly McCain has rallied his base. But the effects from the Palin selection and a unified Democratic convention have been much more of a help to Obama. Though this is only one poll and it's still relatively early, the rapid movement up for Obama across Democrats and Independents coupled with only a slight tick up for McCain among his own party is a very good sign.
Finally, given Obama's vastly superior ground game, the edge for Obama is only increased. Now that you've calmed down, let's pretend that the race really is tied (which is what the pundits will surely be saying any minute now. Who wants to cover a boring race?), because it's when we have a real fight that we do our best work.
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