This is important since neither Obama or McCain can win if they lose indys with a visible margin. They have been tied with indys in some polls, but Obama seems to have the advantage in most polls.
If Obama wins indys, he wins the election. Its as simple as that, since there are more registered democrats then republicans. So, ABC have released a poll where more then 50% says she doesn`t have the experience. With all voters 25 says she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 19 says less likely. The numbers for Biden are 22 vs 10 for Obama. So, Biden nets 12, Palin 6.
Palin scores good with evangelical white Protestants and conservatives. Basically she is loved by her party, Democrats hate her and independents are in the middle. So, yes she fires up her base and probably increase the enthusiasm, but the problem is that she is not on top of the ticket.
I think people forget that enthusiasm is better when its for the person on the top of the ticket. I believe Obama has a HUGE advantage here, since Palin won`t be nearly as much in the news or campaigning as McCain and Obama will. Also, she won`t be able to campaign much for herself, ask question etc. Biden, can travel around the country all be himself or with his wife.
Palin will probably to some fundraising and some "limited" town-halls with rigged questions, but her ability to campaign will be limited. Obama has himself, his wife (which probably will campaign almost as much as Palin), Joe Biden (100%), Jill Biden (who will be campaigning a bit as well). All in all I think you can say that Obama has 3 "important" people who will campaign 100%, McCain has something like 2 (if you add Cindy McCain to Sarah Palin).
We also have the Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton factor, if you put them up against George and Laura Bush, who do think will be most effective????
Back to the ABC poll again, what strikes me as interesting is the effect Palin and Biden has on "moderates" which is interesting in regards to indys:
"At the same time, the story in the ideological center is different: Among moderates, Biden registers as a net 15-point positive for Obama. In the same group, Palin shows no effect on support for McCain."
There`s been a lot of talk about "the most important thing about a vp-candidate is that she/he must do now harm". Well, Palin doesn`t do any harm to indys, she rallies up her base, but she is HATED among most democrats, when Obama can raise over 10 mill$ off her speech, it means she does a lot of harm. Biden on the other hand, is net positive, he doesn`t distract Obama, he can campaign for himself, has experience and a wife people will love.
Palin can`t campaign 100%, she distracts attention from McCain and she is hated by democrats which means she will increase enthusiasm both for her base but also for Obamas base.
McCain has a huge problem, its all about Sarah Palin and not about him. You don`t look strong when your Vp-candidate "outshines" you....'
http://abcnews.go.com/...