A quick hit and run diary on the tracking polls, following up on my diary yesterday that set out to crack the nightly numbers of the Rassmussen and Gallup tracking polls.
I would have skipped a day today, what with the Ellis Hollow Fair this afternoon and then Man on Wire tonight, but the geniuses at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ have done a couple of entries on the tracking polls since my last effort--and much as I love their work (hey, without Baseball Prospectus, would I win every fantasy baseball league I ever enter?) I just have different numbers than they do, and mine seem to be holding up well.
What's more, my numbers look slighly better for the Big BO. Details after the jump, although I won't go into the comparison--you can work that out for yourselves. I'll just give what I have, fwiw.
Ok, here is what we have. To track the accuracy of my guesses, I'll include what I had guessed inside [brackets], and guesses going forward inside quotation ?marks?. Where I was exactly right I'll just put a √. (Of course, my "estimate" of a given evening can't be verified, but I'll give myself a √ if my estimate fits with the subsequently published average.)
Rassmussen:
Day Avg. of prev. Eves Estimate of that Eve
25 O48 M45 O41 M52
26 O46 M46 O47 M46
27 O46 M47 O50 M43
28 O47 M47 O50 M46
29 O49 M45 O47 M46
30 O49 M45 O50 M46
31 O49 M46 O50 M46
01 O49 M46 O53 M43
02 O51 M45 O48 M46
03 O50 M45 O49 M46
04 O50 M45 O48 M47
05 O48 M46 O49[48] M46√
06 O49[48] M46√ ?O49? ?M46?
07 O49? M46?
For days (check my comments prior to my diaries) I have been predicting equilibrium at O49 M46, and I still do.
Ok, on to Gallup.
Day Avg. of prev. Eves Estimate of that Eve
25 O45 M45 O45 M47
26 O44 M46 O45 M41
27 O45 M44 O54 M38
28 O48 M42 O48 M44
29 O49 M41 O46 M41
30 O49 M41 O51 M41
31 O48 M42 O50 M46
01 O49 M43 O49 M39
02 O50 M42 O48 M43
03 O49 M43 O49 M43
04 O49 M42 O48√ M46[47]
05 O48√ M44[45] O44[48] M45√
06 O47[48]M45√ ?O46? ?M45?
07 ?O46? ?M45? ?O47? ?M44?
08 ?O46? ?M45? ?O47? ?M44?
09 ?O47? ?M44?
I've set out a few more days worth of predictions for Gallup to take it too to where I expect it to fall into equilbrium, barring any unexpected events on the trail.
The logic of convention bounces might suggest McCain continuing to move up through the weekend nights' polling, building on his one-point lead of last night to actually show a lead by Monday's morning average. But I think that last night actually showed a quirkily low Obama number, driven perhaps by doubts cast on him by the Republican convention, but perhaps just by statistical accident, and that Obama will quickly gain back at least a couple of points. McCain, meanwhile, looks to me to have an absolute high-water mark of 46, and to be pulling south of that almost every night. What's more, Palin is off of the campaign trail and out of the news.
Am I right that equilibrium approacheth? Or am I just wishfully thinking? Tune in tomorrow ... or the next day ... or whenever I get another of these diaries up.
Meanwhile, know that my cell phone is my only phone, and that I am an Obama voter out at the movies tonight! So obviously whatever goes wrong in the polls, THAT is your explanation.
And remember, following the tracking polls is like smoking crack. It really is not doing anyone any good, especially you. If you need help, consult one of the many quitting-smoking diaries here on dKos over the past few days. As for me, let's just say I picked the wrong Fall to stop sniffing glue.