With all the microscopic poll analysis that has been taking place, I feel that one key factor is largely being ignored; where are we now versus where we were in 2004?
Let's look at the RCP graph from 2004:
2004 Bush V Kerry RCP Graph
I'll be the first to admit it, this environment is not the same one we were in in 2004. I need to go explain the details of why, we all know. Nonetheless, when I looked back, one startling difference that I noticed is the huge lead that Bush gained around this time in 2004. I attribute this jump to three factors:
I. The Swift Boat attacks and Kerry's perceived lack of rebuttal.
II. The 3rd anniversary of 9/11 and the associated jitters.
III. Kerry's lack of a big bounce after the DNC, and Bush's huge bounce after the conveniently timed and placed 2004 RNC.
This year, Obama got a huge bounce from the DNC, and McCain is struggling to even bring the race back to a tie after the RNC and the Palin pick have soaked in. The Republicans were hoping if they ran the same national security / culture war play they ran at the 2004 RNC, they would get the same result. Thus far they have failed.
Back to the graph, notice anything after the Bush bounce? Kerry starts climbing back after the debates, and continues to do so until election day. But he fell short and was never able to catch up. This year, we are just above even footing. 9/11 is almost here. The RNC is over. Ayers, Rezko, Wright have all been played out. Yet Obama still maintains a small lead. I for one am thrilled that as we enter into debate season we are not playing defense. We all know that on issue after issue the public favors the positions of our candidate. I'm also looking forward to the next two months and am optimistic about our chances this year.