Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% overall, 5% for Democratic oversample (No trend lines)
Approval/Disapproval/No opinion
Cuomo (D) 53/26/21
Kennedy (D) 58/32/9
Israel (D) 17/6/77
King (R) 39/41/20
Giuliani (R) 38/56/6
Democratic head-to-heads
Kennedy 31
Cuomo 26
Israel 2
Undecided 41
Unlike polling from Quinnipiac and PPP (PDF), this R2K edition shows both Cuomo's (+27) and Kennedy's (+26) net favorability to be nearly identical. And since we don't have any trendlines, we can't confirm or contradict the notion that Kennedy has been losing support. What we can confirm from the other polls is that no one candidate is getting a majority of Democratic support. In fact, most remain on the sideline despite two huge legacy names, which would argue for the caretaker appointment, so that the voters can make the final call in two years. But alas, the notion of giving this vote to the voters ultimately is apparently offensive to many. Indeed, in a somewhat related question of whether the seat should be filled by appointment or special election, the results:
QUESTION: Generally speaking do you think the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton should be appointed by the Governor or should there be a special election to fill the seat?
Appointed 46
Elected 33
Sigh...
Moving on, we added Rep. Steve Israel into this poll as the random unknown dark horse, to get a sense for what a generic Democrat would do against the GOP's top candidates. Bottom line? "Generic Unknown Democrat" still beats the best the GOP can dish. And while the two legacies -- Cuomo and Kennedy -- are riding their name ID to big, easy victories over the GOP's best, neither candidate does markedly better than the other.
Cuomo (D) 45
King (R) 32
Cuomo (D) 48
Giuliani (R) 33
Kennedy (D) 47
King (R) 31
Kennedy (D) 49
Giuliani (R) 32
Israel (D) 34
King (R) 31
Israel (D) 35
Giuliani (R) 32
In other numbers, respondents generally believe all the tested candidates are qualified to be senator. Well, except for Israel who no one knows.
So the polling on this question has sort of been all over the place. Not that it matters, since it's an election of one. This drama should come to a close shortly, as it's finally time for Gov. Paterson to make his call.
Bonus finding: Check out how little New Yorkers and NYC like Rudy Giuliani. His approval/disapproval of 38/56 is by far the worst of all the names tested. And in the head-to-heads, he gets crushed in NYC, by far delivering the worst performance of any candidate in any of the state's regions.
Update: And now a Marist poll backs up Q-poll and PPP, with Cuomo getting 40 percent support form ALL New York registered voters, compared to 25 percent for Caroline Kennedy. That's the big difference here -- we polled only Democrats on the question of which Democrat should get appointed. Marist did all voters (which includes independents and Republicans), as did PPP and Q.
NEW YORK RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
The Research 2000 New York Poll was conducted from January 12 through January 14, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 324 (54%)
Republicans 168 (28%)
Independents 108 (18%)
White 396 (66%)
Black 96 (16%)
Hispanic 72 (12%)
Other 36 (6%)
18-29 121 (20%)
30-44 174 (29%)
45-59 198 (33%)
60+ 107 (18%)
NY City 252 (42%)
NY City Suburbs 144 (24%)
Upstate 204 (34%)
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VORERS ONLY
Men 184 (46%)
Women 216 (54%)
White 228 (57%)
Black 84 (21%)
Hispanic 56 (14%)
Other 32 (8%)
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ONLY
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):
ALL MEN WOMEN W B H O
Caroline Kennedy 31% 28% 34% 27% 41% 33% 35%
Andrew Cuomo 26% 30% 22% 25% 26% 31% 27%
Steve Israel 2% 2% 2% 3% - - 1%
Undecided (NOT READ) 41% 40% 42% 45% 33% 36% 37%
ALL VOTERS
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Caroline Kennedy? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 39% 17% 15% 10%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 58% 32% 10%
MEN 55% 36% 9%
WOMEN 61% 28% 11%
DEMOCRATS 76% 17% 7%
REPUBLICANS 23% 63% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 59% 30% 11%
18-29 62% 28% 10%
30-44 60% 31% 9%
45-59 57% 33% 10%
60+ 54% 35% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Andrew Cuomo? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 36% 14% 12% 21%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 53% 26% 21%
MEN 50% 30% 20%
WOMEN 56% 22% 22%
DEMOCRATS 71% 13% 16%
REPUBLICANS 21% 55% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 20% 31%
18-29 57% 23% 20%
30-44 55% 26% 19%
45-59 52% 27% 21%
60+ 49% 29% 22%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Steve Israel? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 5% 12% 4% 2% 77%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 6% 77%
MEN 16% 9% 75%
WOMEN 18% 3% 79%
DEMOCRATS 25% 3% 72%
REPUBLICANS 6% 14% 80%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 4% 85%
18-29 19% 3% 78%
30-44 18% 5% 77%
45-59 16% 7% 77%
60+ 16% 8% 76%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Peter King? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 26% 27% 14% 20%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 39% 41% 20%
MEN 43% 39% 18%
WOMEN 35% 43% 22%
DEMOCRATS 22% 54% 24%
REPUBLICANS 74% 17% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 36% 41% 23%
18-29 34% 46% 20%
30-44 38% 42% 20%
45-59 41% 39% 20%
60+ 44% 37% 19%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rudy Giuliani? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 27% 28% 28% 6%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 38% 56% 6%
MEN 43% 52% 5%
WOMEN 33% 60% 7%
DEMOCRATS 19% 75% 6%
REPUBLICANS 75% 18% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 37% 57% 6%
18-29 34% 60% 6%
30-44 37% 57% 6%
45-59 40% 55% 5%
60+ 42% 52% 6%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Caroline Kennedy the Democrat and Peter King
the Republican?
KENNEDY KING UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 31% 22%
MEN 43% 37% 20%
WOMEN 51% 25% 24%
DEMOCRATS 70% 8% 22%
REPUBLICANS 7% 76% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 42% 30% 28%
WHITE 41% 43% 16%
BLACK 62% 3% 35%
HISPANIC 57% 14% 29%
OTHER 59% 10% 31%
18-29 51% 26% 23%
30-44 49% 29% 22%
45-59 45% 33% 22%
60+ 44% 36% 20%
NY CITY 56% 24% 20%
NY CITY SUB 39% 38% 23%
UPSTATE 42% 35% 23%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Caroline Kennedy the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani
the Republican?
KENNEDY GIULIANI UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 32% 19%
MEN 45% 38% 17%
WOMEN 53% 26% 21%
DEMOCRATS 72% 10% 18%
REPUBLICANS 7% 76% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 30% 25%
WHITE 42% 44% 14%
BLACK 64% 3% 33%
HISPANIC 58% 14% 28%
OTHER 61% 10% 29%
18-29 56% 26% 18%
30-44 51% 30% 19%
45-59 47% 34% 19%
60+ 44% 37% 19%
NY CITY 62% 23% 15%
NY CITY SUB 38% 41% 21%
UPSTATE 40% 37% 23%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Peter King
the Republican?
CUOMO KING UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 32% 23%
MEN 41% 38% 21%
WOMEN 49% 26% 25%
DEMOCRATS 67% 7% 26%
REPUBLICANS 6% 79% 15%
INDEPENDENTS 39% 32% 29%
WHITE 39% 44% 17%
BLACK 60% 3% 37%
HISPANIC 55% 14% 31%
OTHER 56% 10% 34%
18-29 50% 26% 24%
30-44 47% 30% 23%
45-59 43% 34% 23%
60+ 42% 38% 20%
NY CITY 54% 25% 21%
NY CITY SUB 37% 39% 24%
UPSTATE 40% 36% 24%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani
the Republican?
CUOMO GIULIANI UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 33% 19%
MEN 44% 39% 17%
WOMEN 52% 27% 21%
DEMOCRATS 72% 10% 18%
REPUBLICANS 6% 78% 16%
INDEPENDENTS 43% 32% 25%
WHITE 42% 45% 13%
BLACK 63% 3% 34%
HISPANIC 56% 16% 28%
OTHER 60% 11% 29%
18-29 54% 25% 21%
30-44 50% 31% 19%
45-59 46% 35% 19%
60+ 42% 41% 17%
NY CITY 61% 22% 17%
NY CITY SUB 37% 44% 19%
UPSTATE 39% 39% 22%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Steve Israel the Democrat and Peter King
the Republican?
ISRAEL KING UNDECIDED
ALL 34% 31% 35%
MEN 30% 37% 33%
WOMEN 38% 25% 37%
DEMOCRATS 52% 7% 41%
REPUBLICANS 4% 76% 20%
INDEPENDENTS 27% 31% 42%
WHITE 28% 43% 29%
BLACK 48% 3% 49%
HISPANIC 42% 13% 45%
OTHER 46% 9% 45%
18-29 38% 24% 38%
30-44 34% 29% 37%
45-59 33% 33% 34%
60+ 31% 37% 32%
NY CITY 43% 24% 33%
NY CITY SUB 26% 38% 36%
UPSTATE 29% 35% 36%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Steve Israel the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani
the Republican?
ISRAEL GIULIANI UNDECIDED
ALL 35% 32% 33%
MEN 31% 38% 31%
WOMEN 39% 26% 35%
DEMOCRATS 54% 7% 39%
REPUBLICANS 4% 79% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 27% 33% 40%
WHITE 29% 44% 27%
BLACK 49% 3% 48%
HISPANIC 42% 14% 44%
OTHER 47% 10% 43%
18-29 40% 24% 36%
30-44 35% 30% 35%
45-59 34% 34% 32%
60+ 31% 39% 30%
NY CITY 44% 24% 32%
NY CITY SUB 26% 40% 34%
UPSTATE 30% 36% 34%
QUESTION: Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S Senator?
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 43% 35% 22%
DEMOCRATS 62% 19% 19%
REPUBLICANS 8% 65% 27%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 36% 23%
QUESTION: Do you think Andrew Cuomo is qualified to be a U.S Senator?
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 42% 36% 22%
DEMOCRATS 61% 19% 20%
REPUBLICANS 7% 68% 25%
INDEPENDENTS 39% 37% 24%
QUESTION: Do you think Steve Israel is qualified to be a U.S Senator?
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 15% 4% 81%
DEMOCRATS 22% 2% 76%
REPUBLICANS 4% 8% 88%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 4% 85%
QUESTION: Do you think Peter King is qualified to be a U.S Senator?
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 42% 34% 24%
DEMOCRATS 23% 44% 33%
REPUBLICANS 79% 15% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 33% 27%
QUESTION: Do you think Rudy Giuliani is qualified to be a U.S Senator?
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 46% 29% 25%
DEMOCRATS 27% 39% 34%
REPUBLICANS 83% 11% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 28% 27%
QUESTION: Generally speaking do you think the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton should be appointed by the Governor or should there be a special election to fill the seat?
APPOINTED ELECTION NOT SURE
ALL 46% 33% 21%
DEMOCRATS 62% 20% 18%
REPUBLICANS 17% 56% 27%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 35% 21%