By AAP
All time high temperatures in southern Australia combined with strong dry winds to propel fires through residential neighborhoods faster than people could escape. The official number of dead has been raised to 128 but fires are still burning and casualties are mounting. Cooler weather is now favoring fire fighters, but there are still a number of fires burning out of control.
Analysis of climate records indicates that this extreme event may be tied to climate change and a portent of thing to come.
The Premier of the Australian state of Victoria, John Brumby reported that more bad news is expected.
Twenty-five people are confirmed to have died in fires north of Melbourne and this morning there are unconfirmed reports of bodies being found in cars overtaken by the fires in Gippsland in the state's east.
This morning Mr Brumby said 26 fires were still burning and up to a dozen of them are still very serious.
"Every effort is being thrown at the fires," he said.
"This is not over yet. Tragically I think there will be more bad news.
The record breaking heat of 115.5 F in Melbourne is consistent with global warming. The Australian desert is expanding to the south.
Average February high temperatures in Melbourne are 79F. However, heat from the interior deserts was blown by strong winds to the southern coast of Australia breaking temperature records across the region.
A recent paper showed that the tropics and subtropics are growing in response to global warming.
Using the tropopause, Lu and Reichler tracked the position of the tropical belt since the 1960s and found it has slowly been getting wider. "There is a lot of natural variation from year to year," says Reichler, "but we see a slow, gradual change." On average, the tropical boundaries are moving 0.7 degrees towards the poles each decade. This amounts to roughly 70 kilometres per decade, or 350 kilometres in 50 years.
The team then plugged their data into a leading climate model. If the model included human emissions, it matched the real data. Without the emissions, it didn't.
"Our main conclusion is that greenhouse gases and [the depletion of stratospheric] ozone are the culprits for the widening," says Lu. "These two work in the same direction, both pushing the boundary of the tropics polewards."
We can see from this January's surface pressure anomalies that the subtropical high that sits over the Australian desert has expanded to the south. (Please click to expand image.)
Rainfall records from Perth show the effects of the steady movement of the desert towards the southern and southwestern coasts.
By fishoutofwater
The slow but steady desertification of Perth over the past 30 years is climate change, not a weather event or cycle. The desertification threatens cities, agriculture and the unique plants and animals of Australia. The devastation of climate change is not something that might occur 50 years from now. It is happening now.
Johnny Rook's earlier diary on fires and floods in Australia
Unenergy's diary on fires 2 days ago.