I’ve been watching the blowup in the blogosphere about Joe Sestak with a mixture of amusement and alarm. They both stem from the same source: the naivitë of so many of our posters who seem to believe that it's time to throw a Democratic senator from Pennsylvania overboard now that the state has two of them for only the third time in it's history.
As someone who has been around national politicians for a long time, that strikes me as unrealistic and self-indulgent.
Josh Marshall’s Talking Points Memo has a really powerful letter from a constituent of Sestak's that puts the issue in perspective. Jump up and down and stamp your feet if you want to, but no mature politician is going to disown Specter as a member of the Democratic party. Sestak’s constituent explains why.
Talking Points Memo
The unnamed writer explains that he’s a constituent of Sestak’s, grew up in the district (I actually lived there too, long ago) and has provided him with money and support. He thinks of Sestak as a great asset to the party. But he says:
There's some sort of weird, collective spate of wishful thinking/lunacy going on. Sestak will not be running for the Senate in 2010.
I think that’s right. Even with Daily Kos flexing its muscles and the example of Democrats beating Lieberman in a Democratic primary a couple of years ago, the reality is that Lieberman is still in the US Senate. Sestak is disappointed and he’s acting out.
The writer grounds his argument in several points. First, the notion that somehow Sestak’s a rebel who took on the party as an upstart doesn’t hold water. Sestak has little credibility pouting about the party establishment since he used that very establishment to clear the field for himself when he wanted to run for the House:
First, Sestak's claim that he somehow took on the entrenched powers when he ran in 2006 is ridiculous. There was a Democratic candidate already in the race, Bryan Lentz. Lentz, unlike Sestak, actually lived in the district. He had been in the Army Reserves in Iraq. When Sestak left the Navy and started talking about moving back to the area and running for the House, the local Democratic party pushed Lentz out of the race....So for Sestak to complain now that the party is pushing him out is a bit rich.
Next, Obama owes Sestak nothing. That’s important in politics. You dance, as former House Speaker Tip O’Neill once put it, with the one you brought. During the presidential primaries, Sestak took Hillary to the Pennsylvania Prom:
Bill Clinton ... did at least one fundraiser in the area for Sestak. Not too many insurgents have a former president behind them... Obama doesn't owe Sestak much. Sestak backed Hillary, presumably because he owed a lot to the Clintons. Nothing wrong with that. The district ended up going for Obama.
Next: All of the powers at the national and state levels are lined up behind Specter. Some of us may not like that, but until something changes, those are the rules of the game. (And obviously Sestak was quite willing to play by these rules when they suited his purposes.) Sestak’s chances of beating Specter in a Democratic primary are between slim and none.
How is going Sestak going to beat Specter in the Democratic primary? Let me give you four names: Obama, Biden, Rendell, Casey. They've all put themselves on the line for Specter. There's no way they're going to let Specter lose. They'll shut off the money for Sestak, and Joe can't count on the Clinton connection for fundraising help this time.
I would add that that all the Democratic money that found it's way into Specter's campaign coffers since 1980 through circuitous routes can now be deposited directly, while Specter will still be able to tap some Republican donors. Money is still the mother's milk of politics, as Jesse Unruh, a legendary Democratic leader of the California Assembly in the 1960s put it. Joe's going to find it hard to get his lips on the nipple.
There’s also a national angle that's new to me, but it bears repeating – you don’t want to give Republican Senators who might think of switching to the Democratic Party the idea they’ll be ridden out of town on a rail if they don’t conform to every orthodoxy of the left wing of the party (where I proudly place myself). That’s not how politics works. In fact, we’ve seen that as the right wing of the Republican Party shrank the always tiny Republican tent into a sun umbrella, the Democrats more inclusive approach was attractive to Specter. Why throw that away?
Finally, think about about this from the national party's point of view. They would love to get Snowe and/or Collins to switch over. A big Democratic win in 2010 makes that more likely. But not if they see Specter going down to defeat in a Democratic primary...
Also, there's no guarantee his seat stays Democratic if he leaves the House to run for the Senate.
That last point is worth thinking about. It’s a sign of how far from the mainstream the Republicans strayed in the last eight years that this district in which I once lived now has a Democratic representative. I never thought I’d live to see that day. Never. I assume Sestak can hold it. Someone else? I don't know.
We should all calm down. Both of these men are flawed human beings and flawed politicians. The idea that one of them wears a white hat and the other a black one doesn't pass the laugh test.
You know, people in the military like to fight; that’s what attracted them to the armed services. But starting a fight about the purity of the Democrats holding down two Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time in 50 years isn’t sensible politics. Undoubtedly Sestak is disappointed. With a Senate seat within his reach, he watched as Specter stepped to the front of the line. But he should calm down. He's not serving his party or his own long term interests well. As Michael Corleone put it, this is business, not personal. In six years Specter's seat will be Sestak's for the asking.