The Washington Post, in an article written by Maria Glod and Rosalind S. Helderman, and published this morning (6-4-09), details the false claims made by Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, and others concerning the possibility of a link between 3rd grade reading scores and predictions for prison bed planning purposes.
There seem to be many culprits here, and the article talks about the perpetuation of a myth that has gone on for many years, to the point of urban legend status. Grover 'Russ' Whitehurst, a former head of the U.S. Education Department's research arm, is sometimes cited as a source of the claim. He is quoted in the article as saying that he heard and repeated the non-fact around 6 years ago.
Recently, everyone from Hillary Clinton to Colin Powell, even the organizers of the Alexandria Literacy Festival have used the bogus claim. Another person, Robley Jones, lobbyist for the Virginia Education Association, said in the article it could possibly have come from him. Jones said he remembers saying something very much like this at a recent conference discussion on education attended by McAuliffe.
Empty desks line the dimly lit elementary classroom. A map of the United States hangs on the wall. As quiet music plays, the camera pulls back and prison bars close over the sobering scene.
"Imagine if your entire future was determined by what you did in the third grade," says Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe in a television advertisement promoting his plan to expand preschool. "Did you know we use the failure rates of third-graders to help predict how many prison spots Virginia will need in 15 years?"
You didn't know? Could be because it's not true -- at least not in Virginia.
The startling claim has been cited by McAuliffe and one of his rivals, Brian Moran, as they seek the Democratic nomination for governor. It is an appealing bit of political rhetoric, providing a cinematic illustration of the benefits of expanding preschool: Society will reap long-term savings by spending money early on education.
Brian Moran made a similar claim in a radio interview last month. In my opinion, he should have known better, as should his campaign. One instance by Moran isn't quite the same as a television commercial and accompanying literature on the issue of education.
All three Democratic candidates for Governor (and almost everyone else) agrees that children who get a poor start in school are more susceptible to academic problems and social ills. All three have called for increases in early childhood education.
Since the ad began airing in Richmond, Norfolk and Roanoke, McAuliffe's campaign has said third-grade scores aren't part of the official formula Virginia uses to plot prison construction. But the campaign says the ad was designed as a tangible and understandable way to bring home the idea that quality preschool is a smart investment.
"We feel comfortable using third-grade reading scores as a way of communicating, in shorthand, the importance of education in predictions of long-term social behavior, including predictions about crime rates, which are then used to determine the number of prison beds that we are constructing," said McAuliffe communications director Delacey Skinner.
Pure, 100%, unadulterated spin, something the McAuliffe campaign is good at.
Pandering to an idea is always a bad practice. It just looks like you are putting forth information because after all, who doesn't like schools for the kids? The subject is an important one, but real solutions and real statistics are what will convince people something needs to be done.
So the McAuliffe campaign, in trying to make a point, used the 'shorthand' that now turns out to be not true. What else has been exaggerated and might be untrue?
Is this what 'shorthand' means to Terry McAuliffe?