Professor Mebane, whose analysis we have linked to earlier, has just updated his report.
Money Quote:
"The results give moderately strong support for a diagnosis that the http://2009 election was affected by significant fraud."
More under the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com
****Cross posted at StochasticDemocracy.com****
Professor Mebane of University of Michigan, a well-regarded expert on electoral fraud whose analysis we've discussed earlier, has just updated his report on the Iranian elections.
More in depth analysis on it later, but after conditioning first-round data from the last elections in 2005 with an over-dispersed binomial model, he finds significant discrepancies.
See it here , skip to page 9.
Money Quote:
"The results give moderately strong support for a diagnosis that the 2009 election was affected by significant fraud."
****Cross posted at StochasticDemocracy.com****