ATTENTION MUST BE PAID?
I wonder if seasonally adjusted data should be the primary indicator of whether our economy is improving. I'm not an economist, but it seems to me that the concept of seasonal adjustment is best applied when the economy can be considered generally normal, when consistent, reasonably predictable seasonal fluctuations can be expected from one year to the next. This is not our situation today.
Data are from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. To check my work, scroll down to the Employment/Monthly section. Click the One-Screen Data Search icon in the "Employment, Hours, and Earnings - National" bar, and proceed.
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
May to June 2009, NOT seasonally adjusted
May and June numbers are preliminary.
Total nonfarm: loss = 110,000 (gain = 471,000 since February 2009).
Total private: gain = 367,000 (gain = 803,000 since February 2009).
Total government: loss = 477,000 (loss = 332,000 since February 2009).
Federal government: loss = 36,000 (gain = 41,000 since February 2009).
State government: loss = 250,000 (loss = 317,000 since February 2009).
State government ex education: gain = 7,400 (gain = 18,700 since February 2009).
State government education: loss = 257,900 (loss = 336,500 since February 2009).
Local government: loss = 191,000 (loss = 57,000 since February 2009).
Local government education: loss = 364,000 (loss = 323,000 since February 2009).
Local government ex education: gain = 172,600 (gain = 266,700 since February 2009).
Private employment increased substantially May-June, but the increase is drowned out by strapped state and local governments, which are dealing with their budget woes by reducing the number of workers toiling in the education vineyard. Private employment increased so much since February 2009 that the NOT seasonally adjusted data show a substantial increase in total nonfarm employment, outweighing the dismal state and local government numbers.
Are we turning around? Looks promising to me.
OH EFFING YEAH! TAKE THAT, JOHN BONEHEAD!
Sobering observation: remember all those layoffs, shutdowns, and bankruptcies at the end of 2008? If you do your own data trek, you might notice that total private nonfarm employment* (see correction below) decreased nearly 5 million (4,711,000) from December 2008 to January 2009, data NOT seasonally adjusted. The seasonally adjusted number is less than 1 million (749,000).
*CORRECTION, 7/6/09: I goofed. Total private nonfarm employment decreased 3,168,000 from December 2008 to January 2009, data NOT seasonally adjusted.
Here are seasonally adjusted numbers, in case they mean anything.
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
May to June 2009, seasonally adjusted
May and June numbers are preliminary.
Total nonfarm: loss = 467,000
Total private: loss = 415,000
Total government: loss = 52,000
Federal government: loss = 49,000
State government: loss = 4,000
State government, excluding education: loss = 10,100
State government, education: gain = 6,000
Local government: gain = 1,000
EMPLOYMENT, JUNE 2009
Federal government: 2,807,000
State government: 5,191,000
Local government: 14,556,000
Semi-interesting tidbit:
Total financial activities: 7,754,000
Employment in the financial activities sector reached its historic high in December 2006 (8,362,000). A number as low as June's hasn't been reported since December 2000 (7,743,000).
Total private nonfarm: 109,138,000, less than the 109,487,000 in October 1999.
We have lost 6,645,000 (seasibally adjusted) private nonfarm jobs in 18 months, since December 2007 (115,783,000). John Boner, STFU. Private nonfarm employment is now the lowest since the first month of Bush's second term, February 2004 (108,913,000). Millions more are underemployed.
Census data showed that we had 45.7 million medically uninsured in 2007. How many uninsured are there now? What strains are being imposed on Medicaid systems?