Like many DKos readers, I believe that the current health care debate and legislation is the most important domestic policy issue that has faced the nation in years. And there have been many suggestions on how to advance the ball politically, such as using the reconciliation process to avoid cloture in the Senate.
While I am not discounting any of these options, the time has come to address legislative deal-making. Like Obama, I have lived most of my adult life in Chicago and let's be blunt: You do not survive in that political culture without knowing how to cut a deal.
The question then becomes: what do the Blue Dogs/Repubs need and desire legislatively that they cannot get without support from the Democrats and President. This is always a problem in dealing with the Conservatives, for most of the time they do not want anything from the legislature. Sure, they may want to increase a criminal penalty on a drug-dealer or buy a new bomber, but they are perfectly happy to ignore most of society's problems, believing that their root cause lies in governmental action.
This lack of need for legislative action gives the Party of No a built in advantage in cutting deals. The Democrats will always want more from a legislature than the Republicans. Thus, finding what they crave is always a difficulty.
There is one thing coming up that they need legislative action on: taxes, and in particular, estate taxes. When the Bush tax cuts were proposed they had sunset provisions. After the year 2010, the vast majority of the estate tax amendments will go away. This is already a problem for them. If you are doing estate planning the situation beginning in 2011 looks vastly different. The beauty of this is that the Blue Dogs are equally concerned with the estate Tax: all you have to do is call it the Death Tax and they shake in their boots.
If you are a Republican this is a big issue. It is as important to them as health care is to Progressives. To most of the Democrats, not a big deal, although they would like to see higher estate taxes.
The talk with the Blue Dogs/Repubs goes as follows: we will have health care reform, including a strong and immediate public option. (O.K. I would prefer single payer but that is for another day). We will sit down with you and listen to your concerns. We understand that this will not be enough for you. Let me communicate what the Progressives are telling me: the fate of estate tax reform and health care reform are linked. Whatever you do to health care reform we will do to estate tax reform. Oh, by the way, Obama is on board. Unless you can override a veto, estate tax reform is dead. You mess with something we love, we kill something you love.
The downside of the deal is you probably end up giving them a better deal on taxes than you would give them if the issues were negotiated separately. Yes, there is no logical connection between the issues and cutting such a deal is cynical and unpleasant. Yes, it would be nice to live in a world where issues were debated on their own merits and we could have a serious intellectual discuss on the issues. Yes, it would be nice if the Democrats would realize they have the votes to do what they want. Yes, the above strategy will not change many votes overall, but it will be enough to get it passed, including most of the Blue Dogs, who can probably be arm-twisted in allowing the matter to go to a vote. It may not be pretty, and I am sure many of you will find it distasteful and immoral, but it is the Chicago Way. (Rent "The Untouchables" if you don't understand the reference).