The assumption that most people on this site seem to be making is that a bill with the public option can get 50 votes in the Senate, but not 60. The Speaker has insisted that she has the votes in the House to pass a bill with a strong public option.
But what if we don't have the 50 votes?
DemConWatch lists 43 votes. So does OpenLeft. The Stand with Dr. Dean campaign lists 37. Nate Silver lists 48 (though that includes the sick Byrd and Kennedy).
First off, a shout-out is deserved by those Democrats from red states who have come out in favor of a public option:
- Tim Johnson (SD)
- Claire McCaskill (MO)
- Jay Rockefeller (WV)
- Kay Hagan (NC)
...a disappointingly short list, and that's counting MO as a red state.
Here are those who have not come out in favor of a public option, and are from blue or swing states and should know better.
- Bill Nelson (FL)
- Tom Carper (DE)
- Mark Warner (VA)
- Herb Kohl (WI)
If you live in any of these four states (or even if you don't) you know what to do. Picket their offices. Buttonhole them at townhalls. Call, e-mail, snail-mail, or fax them. Keep up the pressure. Carper and Warner in particular collect a lot of money from insurance companies.
Below are red-staters with no public position. Give them the same treatment. Equally important, push them to come out publicly with a position, not more vague calls to "study the issue".
- Blanche Lincoln (AR)
- Mark Pryor (AR)
- Mark Begich (AK)
- Jon Tester (MT)
- and of course Max Baucus (MT)
And the hall of shame: the mostly red-staters who oppose the public option:
- All Republicans + Lieberman (CT)
- Mary Landrieu (LA)
- Kent Conrad (ND)
- Ben Nelson (NE)
- Evan Bayh (IN)
The Republicans need peel off only one of these five to sustain a filibuster. So the bottom five in a sense need the most pressure. It's doubtful they could be persuaded to vote for a public option, but they aren't needed for that. What we need from them is a vote for cloture, lest we be thrown into the netherworld of reconciliation, Senate parliamentarians, Byrd amendments, and nuclear options.