The BBC is now reporting that Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi, the only man ever convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, is to be released by the Scottish Justice Secretary, Kenny MacAskill MSP, with a press conference due at 13:00 BST (10:00 EST). He will be released on compassionate grounds, as he has terminal prostate cancer and has a life expectancy of only another three months. It is expected that he will be greeted on his return by Colonel Gaddafi
The Lockerbie Bombing is the shorthand name given to the terrorist attack 21st December 1988 on Pan Am Flight 103 - a Boing Aircraft that was brought down by a mid-air explosion, killing 243 passengers, 16 crew, and 11 people in the village of Lockerbie in Scotland, UK, where the wreckage came down. Many of the dead were American citizens, given that the flight was between London Heathrow and New York JFK.
The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and seven US Senators including John Kerry and Ted Kennedy, had publically requested that al Megrahi be kept in prison for the full 27-year life term (he has served only 8 years), but the Scottish Justice Secretary disagreed.
Why is this important? Take a look below the fold.
Firstly, there is a significant body of opinion (including relatives of the passengers) who do not believe al Megrahi was guilty, and that even if he were involved, that this must have been state-sponsored. By releasing him, al Megrahi dropped his final appeal, accepting the conviction, and so the "full truth" might never be heard in a Scottish Court. Many insist that he was not involved at all, and that either Iran or Libya were responsible, and he was the sacrificial lamb. Though allergic of conspiracy theories, I mention this because is regularly presented as a reasonable view on most news stations including the BBC. There is some doubt about al-Megrahi's guilt.
Releasing prisoners who have only 3 months to live on compassionate grounds is fairly standard practice in the UK, though by no means guaranteed. This has attracted attention for a couple of additional reasons - this was the result of a new Prisoner Transfer Agreement treaty between the UK and Libya, which was rushed through Parliament (according to the Opposition) by the UK Ministry of Justice, giving the Scottish Government the power over decisionmaking re Libyan prisoners in Scotland. The Scottish Government did not want this power (the only Libyan in Scottish prison is al Megrahi), but failed to secure the exemption from the UK Ministry of Justice.
The decision being put in his lap against his will, Scottish Justice Secretary, Kenny MacAskill MSP (of the Scottish Nationalist Party Government), made the unprecendented move of visiting al Megrahi in prison earlier this month. That has drawn criticism from his political opponents in Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats.
Why is this interesting or important to Americans? Well it suggests a very different balance of diplomatic power than we in the UK are used to. Britain had no luck preventing the deportation of a Hacker with Asperger's Syndrome who broke into the Pentagon IT looking for aliens. We are used to having to accommodate American views on diplomatic affairs when they are as forcefully expressed as in this case.
Secretary of State Clinton had a number of calls with the Scottish Justice Secretary, and there was the letter signed by 7 US Senators (the UK Right were furious to see Senator Kennedy's signature calling for keeping a terrorist in prison, when he is perceived as supporting the IRA throughout their campaign of terror in the UK). This was higher-level and more-public lobbying by the US Government than we would normally see, and it is somewhat surprising that the Scottish government (not a diplomatic world heavyweight) has been prepared to annoy the world's last remaining Superpower.
Certainly Libya is a much rehabilitated force in glbal affairs - Colonel Gadaffi was as rogue a leader as Saddam or Kim Jong-Il in the 1980s and 1990s, but since 2003 (and his support for the War on Iraq) there has been a rapprochement with both his internal former-enemies, and with world leaders. He was visited in Tripoli by Tony Blair, and received here at the Chequers Residence. He has held summits with leaders such as Silvio Burlesconi, always staying in his own Bedoin Tent outside, with his female bodyguard named 'the Amazons' by the press.
Gadaffi has pledged to help with intelligence from North Africa, has opened up the country to foreign investment (the oil industry inparticular, see next paragraph), and paid $800 million in compensation to the families of the victims of Lockerbie. Without wanting to get into conspiracy theories, why is the oil link important?
A little known fact is that the UK could have joined OPEC, such are its oil supplies off the scottish coast. Gadaffi has opened up Libya to internaitonal prospectors, and Shell and BP (the major British oil companies) are both now active in Libya. This is a major link to Scotland, which because of North Sea Oil and Gas, relies heavily on Shell and BP who (especially in the face of the collapse of the Scottish Financial Services Industry - see RBS, HBOS) now constitute around a third of Scottish GDP. The Scottish Government, being run as a minority government by the SNP, believes in long-term independence for Scotland from the UK. Whilst it might seem that a new country would want the friendship of the United States, any independent Scotland would need to be sensitive to two industrial titans who dominate its economy. This does not mean that those companies pressured the Scottish Justice Secretary on behalf of Libya, but it will surely have preyed on his mind when navigating the foreign policy of this compassionate release.
The US government will be furious, the Libyans delighted, the Scottish government is conscious that it cannot please anyone, but is hitting out hard at the UK government for sending the decision to Scotland, for signing the PTA, for refusing to assist in the decision, or for verifying the "deal" done between the US and UK about keeping al Megrahi in a Scottish jail for life. This verison of events somewhat strikes down the co-incidence that Lord Mandelson (British Deputy Prime Minister) had dinner with Gadaffi's son at a house on the GReek Islands belonging to their mutual friends the Rothchilds.
Tonight, irrespective of whether you agree with this decision or not, take a moment to give a thought or a prayer to the families of the 270. Whether al Megrahi was guilty or not, whether he should have been released or not, those 270 people still died in a horrific terrorist atrocity. This will be bringing back the pain of 21 years ago, and the loss from which many have said they will never recover. May they find peace.
UPDATE: The White House has issued a statement saying it is very disappointed in the Scottish decision.