The loss of the foundational role of health care providers and provisions is unthinkable. But re-think the "unthinkable," the improbable collapse of other sectors has now occurred. Is such a bubble burst just around the corner for health care?
Consider the opinions of the following four observers:
Go below the fold and judge for yourself...
The potential for serious trouble ahead:
• Health Care is "An unsustainable out-of-control behemoth headed for a huge collision" just like the ones we have faced with the investment banking industry, the mortgage lenders, and the auto industry:
I am struck by the sheer idiocy of some comments from defenders of the private health insurers in the U.S. who don't seem to recognize that health care built on private insurance companies is headed for the same kind of train wreck. Planted by Republicans and lobbyists to disrupt town meetings, and writing comments on articles and blogs in support of health care reform, defenders of the status quo seem unable to see the big insurance bubble for what it is: an unsustainable out-of-control behemoth headed for a huge collision. -- Louise Marie Roth @ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
• Is Healthcare Armageddon Next?
Dr. Bernadine Healy, health columnist for U.S. News and World Report, wrote a thought provoking column.... It was titled, "Is Healthcare Armageddon Next? " Dr Healy feels that with healthcare costs rising so fast, it is unsustainable. It is only a matter of time before the bubble bursts on a personal and government level.Individuals are now spending $13,000 for insurance premiums versus $6000 in 1999. Government programs are swollen and will eat up almost all of government revenues in the future. Dr. Healy has no easy answer to the problem.
She says single payer government controlled healthcare is not the answer. Costs in countries with that system find costs rising as fast as in the United States. Her solution is to get all stakeholders together without rigid ideological preconceptions to figure out a way to reduce cost. One of the things Healy says we need is better transparency on pricing. Hospital fees vary widely for the same services and vary vastly for individuals depending on insurance coverage.
She also cites prescription drugs as a problem in transparency. Deals are hidden and consumers pay very different prices for the same drug based on negotiations of PBM's. She also says about half the sources of rising costs are new drugs and technologies. http://dtcperspectives.com/...
• Beware the Bursting of the Health Care Bubble
The good news is that if and when the American healthcare bubble bursts, some value will remain. The bad news is that the annual appropriate value could actually be only about 60% of the current expenditure.
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...A "bubble" comes to pass when a commodity of great promise and wide applicability entices many to participate and grows at a pace that reflects hope, excitement, sometimes greed, but does not have sufficient underlying substance to support its continuing growth.
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Which brings us to 2009 and the healthcare bubble. Health Care in the USA uses (consumes) some 17% of the Domestic National Product, something like $ 2 600,000,000,000 per year. Its growth has been at 2-5 X the rate of inflation almost every year for as long as I have watched it (some 30 years).
Many in health care, especially those with high expectations for continued large incomes from this growth, say, "So what"? "We earned it".
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At least $400,000,000,000 annually is spent on unnecessary administration, competitive marketing and advertising, lobbying, large incomes (yes , including bonuses) for CEOs and executive staff who run for-profit organizations (and many not-for-profits ) plus profits for shareholders. And, (conservatively) something like 20% of the total US health care expenditures (perhaps $ 500 000 000 000 annually) is expended for medical practice activities that are not based on scientifically sound evidence and do not improve patient outcomes. -- By GEORGE LUNDBERG, http://www.thehealthcareblog.com/...
• The Health Care Hindenburg
...[T]here is little questioning of the effects of gambling on another high stakes game: people’s health and our nation's economy. Health care is our financial life preserver right now – it is the engine driving the economic survival of towns decimated by manufacturing losses. It is the leading employer for many communities as people fight to re-tool their labor skills into healthcare skills. It is generating a colossal 2.3 trillion dollars of revenue a year: much more than any investment bank – and the philosophy right now? It can’t go under. It will only grow. The future is limitless.
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So what’s the problem?
The problem is there are tremors that the our healthcare bubble is going to burst. A bubble by definition is an artificial inflation based on spending money we don’t have. Healthcare has become so expensive that patients are having trouble paying for it. Employers, too, are having trouble paying for it. Insurers are having trouble paying for it. So guess what, the government is going to have trouble paying for it.
The tremors of an impending healthcare bubble, are like those of our current housing bubble, if we cared to listen: the escalating co-pays, pharmacy, and hospitalization costs. We see the rules change behind the curtain as the Big Boys, ever eager to earn your trust, add millions to our national debt through Medicare drug coverages. We see the employers and insurers in fierce battles for profits as they negotiate plans with hospitals as people are stuck with increasingly larger shares of their bills. And woe to the uninsured, already caught empty-handed in a time of crisis, who suddenly realize their payments exceed those of the more fortunate insured. The once expected mandates for healthcare, too, are beginning to find themselves unfunded and political promises left undelivered.
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Then what happens? Well, Medicare fails. I know, I know. This seems no more possible than the idea that people would ever lose their homes - no way no how.
But when it does happen, then what does the inevitable government bailout look like?
It looks like a national healthcare structure that "comes to our rescue" in ways that no one would have voluntarily chosen. Now we are in crisis.
There is no choice in crisis. You must do as we say.
--Westby G. Fisher, MD, FACC is a board certified internist, cardiologist, and cardiac electrophysiologist,Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at University of Chicago's Pritzker School of Medicine, Our Healthcare Hindenburg, http://drwes.blogspot.com/...