Two new independent polls show the Louisiana governor's race in a
statistical dead heat.
That's the message from two independent statewide voter polls released Wednesday on the Nov. 15 gubernatorial runoff between Democrat Kathleen Blanco and Republican Bobby Jindal.
Jindal leads with 44 percent to Blanco's 40 percent among likely voters polled by the Survey Research Center at the University of New Orleans, but those numbers represent a statistical tie considering the possible margin of error in the poll.
Blanco leads with 39 percent to Jindal's 38 percent among registered voters in a poll by Loyola University political scientist Ed Renwick for WWL-TV. That measure includes how voters are "leaning" in the race. In the New Orleans area, Jindal leads with 41 percent to Blanco's 32 percent.
The Louisiana governor's race has added importance for Democrats. Sen. Landrieu's spectacular (and unexpected) victory in late 2002 helped dent GOP momentum built on its November results. A Blanco victory on the 15th would help accomplish much of the same -- especially since Louisiana is a true battleground state (unlike KY or MS). And, while the Republican candidates vastly outspent the Democrats in KY and MS, Blanco actually has
financial parity with Jindal, and twice as much money left in the bank. It's true that Jindal has made up a great deal of ground on the listless Blanco campaign (and I hear it's been a terrible effort thus far), but that came on the heels of a $2.3 million spending spree. Blanco, by comparison, spent only $823K in that time period, leaving her with $2 million for the stretch run (compared to Jindal's $1 million).
There has been a lot of teeth gnashing over Tuesday's results, but ultimately, the results merely confirmed trends in the blue/red state divide. MS and KY got more Republicans. PA and NJ (more important states for 2004) got more Democratic. VA, a red state slowly getting bluer, gave us mixed results. Predictably enough, the GOP outspent Democrats in MS and KY, while Democrats outspent Republicans in PA and NJ. Money matters.
Louisiana, on the other hand, is a true test of party strength and message, especially given the money parity. If we lose this one, we'll have plenty to gnash about. And Blanco needs to pick it up to avoid that fate.
(Links courtesy of Political Wire.)