Obama will have the votes to get his legislation passed. We have a huge majority in the House and a good enough majority in the Senate. I'd love to see a filabuster in the Senate on the stimulus package because it would put nails in the coffin for the GOP. Obama's enjoying a 70% plus approval rating. He has the best economic team assembled in decades. Job creation is better than tax cuts and everyone know it. Jobs mean that a person can pay his or her bills, buy new things, save for the future, etc. Tax cuts don't guarantee anything about how that money will be spent. If it's all put in folks proverbial matresses to ride out this rainy day, it won't do a thing to stimulate lending and get the engines of the economy moving again. And anyway - we have the votes to get the package passed. It can either be by a small margin or a large one, but it will pass.
The question will then turn to how efficiently the money is getting into the channels that will fund the street, bridge, tunnel, and levy projects. The states and cities will line up, their contractors will line up behind them, and the contractors will hire skilled construction labor, rent equipment, etc. and get that sector of the economy moving again. Major infrastructure projects take anywhere from 2 to 4 years on average. That's enough time to get us through this cycle. But it will be all about the administration of the funds, and the efficiency with which it moves through the system.
If it falls into a black hole or gets entangled in red tape, that's where the GOP and Dems for that matter can flex their anger and frustration muscle again. Obama will be tested at that point. If the stimulus is humming along swimmingly at the end of 2009 and money is getting into the pockets of the contractors and their employees and new employees, all will be well.
But if the money dissappears down a rat hole, we'll hear howls from the Right and the Left.
So let's not be scared at all by the Boehners of the world. They're doing what we'd expect them to do. But their threats have no teeth at this point.