How big Al Qaeda in Af-Pak?
Yesterday on DailyKos I had read interesting diary McChrystal's Myth where in the beginning we learned that:
there is no sign of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. The argument for persisting in Afghanistan says that we have to make sure al-Qaeda doesn’t go back there, yet as former CIA officer Philip Giraldi recently noted, credible assessments suggest that "Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda has likely been reduced to a core group of eight to ten terrorists who are on the run more often than not."
I don’t know on what ground Mr Giraldi made such an assessment, and whether his opinion may be taken as a proven fact. In South Asia in public domain (on TV, newspapers and books) there is different perspective whatever definition of Al Qaeda might be.
Definitions
First of all there is confusion over what Al Qaeda is about and its presence in the Af-Pak region in particular. Narrow definition of Al Qaeda describes it as an extremist organization headed by Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri which planned and executed a string of terrorist attacks on US interests since August 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania till September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. Ahmed Rashid, author of history of Afghan Taliban describes how OBL returned to Afghanistan in 1996 and became friend of Afghan Taliban leadership, building houses for them, though his promise to pave the road from airport to Kandahar did not materialize. After 9-11 Al Qaeda’s leaders went into hiding (reportedly in Bajaur agency of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, FATA), while their network is severely disrupted, its agents are hunted down all over the world. There were no significant terrorist acts attributed to the Bin Laden’s network.
Underground existence of Al Qaeda leave the next question unanswered – whether foreign militants (not from Pakistan or Afghanistan) who were fighting alongside Mulla Omar’s Taliban forces in 2001 and fled to Pakistan’s FATA are part of Al Qaeda or just affiliated outfits. If you include them then Al Qaeda is turning big. Foreigners in Af-Pak region consist of many nationalities but they are mostly Arabs and Uzbeks. Arabs are subdivided further into Egyptians and Libyans, these groups apparently absorbed militants from other countries in the Middle East, EU and America. Uzbeks, led by Tahir Yuldashev from Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, include also militants from the former Soviet Union (like Chechnya) and China (Uighurs).
Some facts.
In recent years there was dramatic increase in US drones attacks on Al Qaeda hideouts inside FATA from 2 in 2006 to 36 in 2008. These attacks led to increased Al Qaeda casualties (allegedly 12 in 2008, an improvement from 0 in 2006, though it was not clear whether elimination of notorious AQ operative Abu Hamza on 1 December was caused by American rocket). 2008 year was the most successful so far. First, a certain Abu Lait el Libi who had led Libyan faction of Arab-Afghans was eliminated, then on 28 July 2008 the missile strike took out top Al Qaeda chemical and biological weapons expert of Egyptian origin Abu Khabab al-Masri.
Many local Taliban-affiliated outfits reportedly shelter foreign fighters, some even have preferences. For example Mulla Nazir, the warlord from South Waziristan, in 2006 fell out with Tahir Yuldashev’s men and waged ferocious war against Uzbeks with tacit support of Pakistani Army. It was alleged that Nazir’s tribesmen killed at least 200-250 Uzbeks. At the same time Mulla Nazir is said to continue providing shelter to hundreds of Arab fighters in his area of control. In that he is not alone, Arabs and Uzbeks are sheltered in all other FATA agencies. Total number of foreign militants operating in FATA is not known, though Pakistani authorities in 2008 admitted the presence of more than 8000 foreign fighters in the tribal areas (this number came out in report tabled by interior minister Rehman Malik, The News, 21 July 2008).
Imtiaz Gul’s book
If you’re interested in getting more information on militancy in Pakistan I would like to recommend "The Al Qaeda Connection. The Taliban and terror in Pakistan’s tribal areas" by Imtiaz Gul published last month. From the book you can find all above mentioned facts and much more.
Imtiaz Gul is eminent Pakistani journalist and specialist on tribal areas militancy issues. Recent articles he signed as the head the Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad. His book is hardly of great literary value, it is rather haphazard collection of facts about terrorist and anti-terrorist activities, bewildering array of names of individuals and organizations clustered around particular FATA agencies. Such manner gives the book an air of medieval chronicle, which probably not far from reality – Pakistan’s tribal areas are inhabited by medieval tribes headed by medieval mullas who wage medievally vicious struggle against each other, Pakistani authorities and US-led coalition forces. Mr Gul provides useful dossier on all prominent militants operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan, their organizations, which regularly change their names. And on top of that he adds widely believed in his country speculations about roles of India, US and ISI in militancy in Pakistan and sources of militants’ income. The plus of this great book of reference on Pakistani militant organizations is its freshness – he covers extensively all terrorist and anti-terrorist activities in the region for the last years, including the first months of 2009.
A snapshot of the content
It is surprising how quickly these militant organizations grow in strength, seemingly just in a few years or months. For example Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the main umbrella group for Pakistani militants, was created by Abdullah Mehsud after returning to Waziristan from the Guantanamo Bay camp. His career was, however, a short one – he blew himself apart in Balochistan in 2006 during a siege by Pakistani security forces. His successor Baitullah Mehsud (in his early thirties) was held responsible for the wave of suicide bombings in Pakistan as well as assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Baitullah was fond of giving interviews to press, where he stated his aim of attacking New York and London and about his desire to learn how to wage modern media war. In order to do that he wanted to know how to upload videos on YouTube. I don’t know whether he did that before his well publicized death by American rocket on 5 August this year reportedly during his visit to the third wife. After some turmoil militants executed the third wife’s whole family (on suspicion of treason) and approved Hakeemullah Mehsud as new TTP chief.
Demonization of Al Qaeda
So Mr Imtiaz Gul’s book provides evidence that FATA’s areas shelter significant number of foreign fighters, however it’s not clear how many of them are part of Al Qaeda organization, not surprising when it comes to the secretive terrorist outfit. That’s why authorities around the world and media could easily demonize it and sometimes exaggerate its influence and numbers. Clinton administration started this process, blaming Bin Laden for many atrocities committed against the USA in the Muslim world since beginning of 1990s though hard evidence was not forthcoming. TV channels and newspapers tend to look into events in some parts of the world like Somalia under angle of possible link to Al Qaeda only omitting complicated nature of trouble spots. Politicians continue to use Al Qaeda every time when they need to justify these or those decisions. Just yesterday Mr Obama again was reportedly speaking about his resolve "to disrupt, dismantle and destroy Al Qaeda network".
Pakistan link
On par with Al Qaeda Pakistan also suffers from image problems, especially in India and US. Enlightened Pakistani rulers understood this for example President Musharraf in June 2001 (before 9-11) in a keynote speech to prominent Islamic clerics said: "The World sees us as backward and constantly going under. Is there any doubt that we have been left behind although we claim Islam will carry us forward in every age, every circumstance and every land...? How does the world judge our claim? It looks upon us as terrorists. We have been killing each other. And now we want to spread violence and terror abroad. Naturally the world regard us as terrorists. Our claim of tolerance is phoney... We never tire of talking about the status that Islam accords to women. We only pay lip-service to its teachings. We do not act upon it. This is hypocrisy". [quoted as in "Pakistan Eye of the Storm" by Owen Bennett Jones, page 21]. Recently President Zardari also admitted that Pakistan supported and exported terror in neighboring countries. However Pakistan is not Al Qaeda, it’s long time ally of US with population of 162 mln. That’s why this state received largely carrots instead of sticks (US Congress just day ago approved another 7.5 bln dolla aid package). Fortunately, as Imtiaz Gul’s book testifies, Pakistani civil society, army and government turned against militants operating in their country. Because of fundamental weakness of Pakistani state, Islamabad never controlled lawless FATA tribal areas, that’s why Al Qaeda and its affiliates, using terror and rigid ideology managed to entrenched there. Only when Pakistani state can claim full control of these badlands the process of uprooting Al Qaeda and its local allies can start. Hopefully this process will begin soon.