It's the political season in the UK right now, when the political parties meet at various seaside towns to attend corporate-sponsored talks on issues like climate change, and tell the country what their new policies would be. The Lib Dems have had their day in the sun, and Labour have now concluded theirs. The Conservatives have their annual conference next week.
One thing is clear: the next government here will be a Tory one led by David Cameron. What that means for us, and by extension our allies in the US, needs to be talked about.
It's hard to defend the Labour Party, and the recent conference reiterated all of the reasons why. From panel discussions that make it clear that it has sold out completely to corporate interests--our coming "low carbon future" sponsored by coal-mining firm Rio Tinto, anyone? How about "business and third world development" sponsored by Coca-Cola?--to the lying speeches by washed-up politicians, there's just no enthusiasm left.
Blair's Third Way has hit the third rail.
Gordon Brown's big speech held no great new ideas to re-energise the party, just the usual promises that anyone who knows what's going on in the real world knows will not be fulfilled. There was a promise of free care for the most needy pensioners, but having been involved in the public consultation on this issue, I already know this is just the sweetener on a plan to introduce obligatory long-term care insurance. Which of course was not mentioned in the speech.
Perhaps the most puzzling policy was an announcement that unmarried teenage mothers would be placed in "supported accommodation" with their children rather than being eligible for an actual flat. What they're talking about is the "foyer" system--not an entirely bad thing, but stretched to the limit currently just trying to cope with young people who have been thrown out by parents or who would otherwise be homeless. Add in loads of teen mums--who really shouldn't be housed with drug and alcohol abusers so will require separate accommodation--and let's just say it--it ain't going to happen. It's empty words. It's also a dog whistle to the far right that we are going to crack down on feckless teenage mothers. Of course, the accidentally knocked up middle class girls will not fall victim to forced rehousing with hot and cold meddling social workers on tap, as Labour spin doctors quickly explained after the speech, those who are being cared for by "good" families will be exempted. As someone who was once a teenage mother, I find this policy chilling so I'm quite glad that it's most likely BS.
Those were the highlights in an otherwise anodyne bloviation. Over in the real world, everyone knows this government is for the chop within a few months, the only question is how many til the election is called. The most recnt polls have Labour coming second or even third. In some constituencies in the last election, it came fourth. I spoke with my own MP earlier this week and we had a sorry laugh about "things being even worse within 9 months" (the period in which the elction must be called). I do some work with a government department and they were cancelling or putting on hold projects months ago, anticipating that they would not go forward once the Tories come in. Friends who work with other departments report the same there--there's no point hiring new staff or starting new initiatives only to see them fired and shut down in a few month's time.
Perhaps the biggest sign al of all is that Rupert Murdoch yesterday ended his support for Labour. Rats jumping sinking ships and all that...
So what results might we, and you, expect from a Conservative government in the UK?
Let's start with unabashed support from all quarters of the party for UK-based military contractors--though New Labour backed them at all times as well, they occasionally had some dissention from the left wing of the party. There will be no more of that with the Cons. And armaments (and mercenaries) are one of the UK's biggest industries, one of the few left that still manufactures here.
Let's continue with even more draconian "law and order" policies and a further expansion of the growing prison system here.
Hard though it is to see what more they could do to make immigration difficult, you can expect further restrictions from a Tory government. That said, one of the few benefits I can think of is that many of the Cons are a bit suspicious of the Russian oligarchs that New Labour has been so cosy with. I'm sure their money will ultimately provide a way to smooth over any differences, though.
You can expect the dog whistles of the Tory right wing to further energise our far right. I ive in Birmingham, where we have this year had two running battles between fascists and a mixed group of Muslim youth and anti-fascists in the city centre. The level of racist and literally fascist rhetoric is hotting up online and in real life. As someone who lives in a mostly Muslim and Asian area, I know that this will have a painful impact on my friends and neighbours, as funding for regeneration, cultural, and education projects dries up. The Tories do not go in for multiculturalism (although they'll make an exception if you are a wealthy potential donor).
In public policy, whilst Cameron has made a committment to keeping the NHS, he will continue with Labour's privatisation efforts. Tne Cons have also announced that they will fast-track the privatisation of schools (also a Labour policy), and are far more likely than Labour to allow in right-wing religious groups as sponsors. Cuts already anticipated to disability benefits are likely to be worse and more sweeping, given the rhetoric about "lazy shirkers" so often heard from local Tory politicians. David Cameron's own experience of being the father of severely disabled child may soften his personal view, but obviously the wealthy Mr and Mrs Cameron never had to rely on disability benefits. You can expect to see Labour rhetoric opposing what were actually its own policies as these are more blatantly implemented. That will be good for a laugh, bad for those actually affected.
You can expect much less enthusiasm for the EU and at some times active opposition. This isn't entirely a bad thing. The EU bureaucracy is bloated and corrupt, but it's been a real gravy train for a lot of New Labour. There is really little enthusiasm anywhere in Europe for a "United States of Europe," although we do like being able to cross borders, work and study freely. Knowing how strong the Euro-skeptic wing of the Tories is, I do worry that the baby could be thrown out with the bathwater. We're facing some real challenges to the EU currently as countries battle each other over job losses involving multinational companies. This will be an area to watch closely.
Links with the US? The Tories may actually be a more critical partner. They have not been enthusiastic about our one-sided extradition treaty, for example. But like Labour, they are run by corporate interests and that is where their real interests lie. So, more of the same where actual (corporate) governance takes place--i.e., don't expect to see any radical re-regulation of the financial sector--with perhaps an occasional stand against the US on the basis of UK national interests.
For myself, the biggest impact will be felt in my work. I'm a university lecturer, and there will be swingeing cuts in our sector. We've known it was coming for awhile. My own job is probably safe but it's likely that those of some friends and colleagues will not be. It is also likely that the cap on university tuition will be lifted, creating a major barrier for working-class and middle-class students. The Tories are enthusiastic about private universities (currently the UK only has two that I know of, one of which is a law school), and private schools. I expect to see more money flowing into privatised special education as well. Lack of accountability and greed will create problems in this area.
It's hard to work up much righteous indignation about a new government. I know instinctively that a Conservative government will be worse, but New Labour has been so bad that it's hard to feature it. Perhaps there's a silver lining in that its failure could boost the chances of the Liberal Democrats, who have some good policies, and/or lead to a resurgence of Labour's left wing.