After a couple of quiet days on the trail, today is such an avalanche of campaign news that it is time to debut a feature I expect to see a lot more of as we head to campaign season--some of the items will just be linked to at the bottom with a minimal explanation.
NJ-Gov: Another Pollster Confirms Tightening Gubernatorial Race
Yesterday, Quinnipiac turned a few heads by showing a tightening race in New Jersey, as GOP nominee Chris Christie falls to earth, and falls into the grasp of incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine. Monmouth University, partnering with Gannett, confirms the trend today (PDF file) by showing Christie with just a three-point lead over Corzine (43-40-8) among likely voters. Among registered voters, the race is tied. In other campaign news, Jon Corzine received an expected-but-welcome endorsement from the state's State Nurse's Association today.
PA-Sen: Sestak Gains on Specter; General Election A Toss-Up
A new Quinnipiac poll out of the Keystone State has to give incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (R-turned-D) some pause as he contemplates re-election. What was once a thirty-two point lead for the incumbent in the Democratic primary against Congressman Joe Sestak is now just nineteen points (44-25). What's more--the two men have almost identical trial heats with Republican Pat Toomey (Specter trails by one, Sestak by three). Sestak has considerably more upside, however, as his name recognition (29%) is only a fraction of both Toomey's (46%) and Specter's (88%).
NY-23: GOP With Modest Lead in Three-Way Special Election Matchup
Republican state legislator DeDe Scozzafava has a lead, albeit a fairly tenuous one, over Democratic political rookie Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, according to the first independent poll in the race by Siena College (PDF File). Scozzafava leads with just 35% of the vote, with Owens trailing with 28% of the vote. Hoffman, who is getting a lot of wingnut love in this race (the Club for Growth endorsed him this week), runs third at a respectable 16% of the vote. Two other private polls, it must be noted, had Hoffman much closer to the field.
NH-Sen: New Poll Gives GOP Slight Lead To Retain Gregg's Senate Seat
In the first public poll in a little while on the open-seat battle to replace outgoing GOP Senator Judd Gregg, Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has a seven-point lead over Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes (41-34), according to American Research Group (or as we like to call them around here...ARG!).
DE-Sen: Castle and Biden Would Be Close Battle, According to Ras
If the "Clash of the (Delaware) Titans" happens to develop between former Governor and longtime Congressman Mike Castle and state Attorney General (and VP progeny) Beau Biden, it will be a close one, at least according to the folks over at Rasmussen. Ras has Castle leading Biden by a five-point margin (47-42). Of course, there is at least a chance that one or both of these men will NOT be running for the Senate. Castle, especially, is far from guaranteed to make the race. Anticipating that, Rasmussen also polled Biden versus 2008 GOP nominee (and already announced 2010 candidate) Christine O'Donnell. In that race, Biden led by nine points (49-40).
NY-Gov: Is Romney Tipping Rudy's Hand?
There are a couple of different ways to read into this nugget of news out of the Empire State: apparently, 2008 GOP presidential contender (and, to many, the 2012 favorite) Mitt Romney will be heading to New York in three weeks to host a fundraiser for 2010 gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio. This could be seen as a sign that Giuliani is going to eventually demur from seeking the governorship, since Romney would be unlikely to expend a lot of political capital on a candidate who polls show would have little chance of winning the GOP nomination against Giuliani. This could also be a sign that there were some seriously hard feelings about the 2008 presidential race, and Romney feels like giving Rudy a little clip at the knees. It is worth noting that Lazio is a Romney friend, as well as an endorser of the former Massachusetts Governor's presidential campaign last year.
NV-Sen: Harry Reid Officially Has A GOP Challenger
It has been rumored for nearly two months, but it was finally made official: former Nevada state GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden is planning to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid for his Senate seat in 2010. Earlier this month, a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showed Lowden with a three-point lead over Reid, as the incumbent was struggling to consolidate his base. Lowden is not going to have the GOP nod to herself. State Senator Mark Amodei looks like a go, and Danny Tarkanian (a failed statewide candidate in 2006 best known for being the son of legendary UNLV hoops coach Jerry Tarkanian) is sounding like a candidate, as well.
MA-Sen: Coakley Announces $2 Million Haul in Expensive Dem Primary
It is now becoming evident that the Democratic primary to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy in the Senate is going to be one extremely expensive proposition. State Attorney General Martha Coakley announced this morning that she had raised over two million dollars in her Senate bid, more than double her expected haul. Meanwhile, Boston Congressman Michael Capuano announced raising over a quarter of a million dollars in just twelve days, adding to the $1 million-plus he already had on hand in his Senate account. With wealthy businessman Stephen Pagliuca and Alan Khazei (who also raised over a million dollars) also in the mix, this will be a very expensive two months, to be sure.
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: Both Parties Plot Post-2010 Plans
In an interesting piece by Rothenberg Reports' writer Nathan Gonzales for Roll Call, he lays out the exhaustive plans that both parties are making to try to maximize their party's strength when redistricting rolls around after the 2010 elections. Clearly, this is one of the most underreported, yet critical, components of the 2009-2010 election cycle. As Gonzales reports, the groundwork is beginning now, well in advance of both the census and the outcomes of the 2010 elections.
IN OTHER NEWS.......
- The Vermont GOP gets Lt. Governor Brian Dubie to commit to a gubernatorial bid in 2010. Crisitunity over at Swing State Project thinks that might actually be a boon for the Democrats, despite Dubie being the most high-profile GOP candidate.
- Russ Carnahan in MO-03 officially gets a challenger in the form of Republican attorney Ed Martin.
- It's early yet, and the Democratic primary field is still fluid, but state legislator Bryan Lentz isn't playing games, announcing a raft of endorsements from local politicos in PA-07.
- Across the country in OR-05, freshman Democrat Kurt Schrader might have just caught a legitimate GOP challenger, as Republican state legislator Scott Bruun is looking to make a go of it.
- Carly Fiorina's hard-right GOP primary challenger for the right to challenge California Senator Barbara Boxer is raising some pretty serious cash.
- Brendan Nyhan, writing for Pollster, looks at an issue that has been discussed around here, as well: if the GOP makes huge gains in 2010, it will do so despite being one of the least popular parties out-of-power in recent memory.