Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Senate
Chuck Grassley (R) 51
Christie Vilsack (D) 40
Chuck Grassley (R) 51
Roxanne Conlin (D) 39
Vilsack is the wife of the former governor, and Conlin, a prominent Des Moines lawyer, ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1982. Neither bring Grassley under the 50 percent mark, but the potential for a competitive race is certainly there. We polled a couple of other Democrats (former state Rep. Bob Krause and former state Sen. Tom Fiegen), but they lagged further behind.
While we haven't polled these matchups before, we did look at Grassley back in December, and his favorability rating was 57-36. He's now at 55-40, a net drop of six points -- certainly less dramatic than what SUSA sees in its own polling:
Incidentally, while rumors about Conlin have swirled of late, Vilsack may be the "mystery candidate" Iowa Dems seem to be so giddy about:
Christie Vilsack, the wife of former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, sounds as if she may be the “mystery candidate” the chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party said was poised to run for the U.S. Senate [...]
“I am honored that people would think of me in that way and would talk to me about running for any office and I think I’m well-qualified to run,” Vilsack said. “I think I’m qualified to serve, so time will tell.” [...]
During the interview, Vilsack said she wasn’t “at that place, yet” to make a decision, but made clear she’s been thinking about a race against Grassley. For example, Vilsack said her husband, U.S. Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack, emailed her Tuesday afternoon, telling her Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine was the only Republican on the Senate Finance Committee to vote for the health care reform bill. Mrs. Vilsack made reference, then, not only to Snowe’s “yes” but to Grassley’s “no” vote.
Could definitely get interesting, really quick.