Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (8/3-5 results)
Favorability
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
Corzine (D) 37 (35) 53 (56) 10 (9)
Christie (R) 47 (44) 36 (29) 19 (27)
Daggett (I) 26 12 62
Corzine is up a net 5 points, though still suffers from an ugly /-16 favorability rating. Christie is in better shape, at +11, but that's down four points since early August. Looking at the crosstabs, we find that Christie's numbers among independents are down eight, from 47-24 to 47-32 (compared to Corzine's 29-61, up five since August). Those trends may appear modest, but they appear to be driving a narrowing in the race:
Corzine (D) 42 (40)
Christie (R) 46 (48)
Daggett (I) 7 (-)
Undecided 5 (9)
Note, we didn't poll Daggett in early August, so this isn't a perfect apples to apples comparison. The results speak for themselves -- the numbers are moving in Corzine's direction, and while the results are technically within the margin of error (making it a statistical tie), other polling has consistently shown a small Christie lead. A Monmouth University poll (PDF) released yesterday had Christie leading 43-40-8. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday gave Christie a 43-39-12 lead. Both those polls also showed a narrowing race.
An interesting data point -- of the 5 percent who are undecided, the vast majority are voters of color. While just one percent of white voters are undecided (and they break for Christie at a 55-35 clip, 25 percent of African Americans, 12 percent of Hispanics, and 13 percent of "other" remain undecided. All three of those categories are solid Corzine demographics. The governor leads black voters 71-4, leads Hispanic voters 56-31, and leads "other" 57-31. If Corzine can turn them out at these percentages, the bulk of that five percent undecided would slot into his column.