A major obstacle to progress in Afghanistan has finally been removed. As many of you know, the election in Afghanistan in August was very troubled and fraud plagued. A U.N. backed panel had come out yesterday and said "it had clear evidence of fraud", and that, in fact, Karzai had received less than 50% of the vote, which would be needed to avoid a runoff. Without a legitimate government, there was no way President Obama could proceed one way or the other in the prosecution of this war, as one of the major components to an effective counterinsurgency strategy is to have a real government that the people think is legitimate. As Rahm Emanuel and John Kerry said on Sunday, it would be "irresponsible" to send in more troops without a legitimate government in place. Find out what changed today.
When I went to bed last night, it appeared that Karzai was being very stubborn and not willing to acknowledge that his "election" was a joke to everyone in the world, including the U.N. and the Obama Administration. McClatchy nicely captured the mood there in a speculative post called "Where's Dick" exploring why "Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan" Richard Holbrooke had not talked to the press in over a month:
Three administration officials, who asked not to be identified by agency, told us that, while Holbrooke is laboring away hard behind the scenes, he's received direct orders from the White House to cool it publicly while Washington desperately tries to unscramble the Afghan electoral mess between President Hamid Karzai and his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah.
"This process is so sensitive. He'd love to deal with this. The White House thinks ... it's not the time for him" to be out front, one of the officials said of Holbrooke.
Perhaps it was that reported shouting match in Kabul a few weeks back between Karzai and Holbrooke?
Instead, it's Sen. John Kerry - a man not known for shouting - who has been in the Afghan capital, dickering with Karzai in the hopes of getting him to accept a run-off, or a compromise with Abdullah.
Shouting matches? That did not sound good. I also didn't get a warm feeling when I read last night that John Kerry, who had gone on to Pakistan after speaking with President Karzai in Afghanistan, had returned to Kabul yesterday to talk some more.. Meanwhile, Bush's man former US ambassador to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad was in talks with opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah. There were two options that would end the impasse: a runoff election or a power sharing agreement. And given all the players involved, this was an all hands on deck operation by the Obama Administration.
Well, it worked:
U.S. officials expect Afghan President Hamid Karzai to concede on Tuesday that he fell short of the 50 percent vote share in August's election that he needed to win outright.
I am going to go out on a limb, and say that Senator John Kerry is responsible for this breakthrough, and major kudos needs to be given to his diplomatic skills here. Apparently, "not shouting" is actually a good way to get things done. In a news conference today, President Karzai said the following:
"This is not the right time to discuss investigations, this is the time to move forward to stability and national unity," Mr Karzai said.
"I call upon our nation to change this into an opportunity to strengthen our resolve and determination, to move our country forward and to participate in the new round of elections."
The runoff election will take place on November 7th, which will be somewhat difficult due to weather concerns, but according to Administration officials, doable. President Obama was clearly pleased by this development:
I welcome President Karzai’s statement today accepting the Independent Electoral Commission’s certification of the August 20 election results, and agreeing to participate in a second round of the election. This is an important step forward in ensuring a credible process for the Afghan people which results in a government that reflects their will.
While this election could have remained unresolved to the detriment of the country, President Karzai’s constructive actions established an important precedent for Afghanistan’s new democracy. The Afghan Constitution and laws are strengthened by President Karzai’s decision, which is in the best interests of the Afghan people.
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It is now vital that all elements of Afghan society continue to come together to advance democracy, peace and justice. We look forward to a second round of voting, and the completion of the process to choose the President of Afghanistan. In that effort, the United States and the international community are committed to partnering with the Afghan people.
What this will mean in regards to whether more troops will go to Afghanistan is anyone's guess. But clearly, the Afghan people deserve to have their vote count, and on that score, they did win a major victory today.
Update The New York Times has more:
Flanked at a news conference in Kabul by Senator John Kerry, the head of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Kai Eide, the top United Nations official in Afghanistan, Mr. Karzai said he would accept the findings of an international audit that stripped him of nearly one third of his votes in the first round, leaving him below the 50 percent threshold that would have allowed him to avoid a runoff and declare victory over his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah.
During a hastily arranged two-hour meeting with Senator Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts and a top foreign policy ally of Mr. Obama, and the United States ambassador, Lt. Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, at the presidential palace in Kabul on Monday, Mr. Karzai, after initially hesitating, agreed to accept the findings, American and European officials said.
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The United States, this official said, is sympathetic to Mr. Karzai’s concerns, but Hillary Rodham Clinton, the American secretary of state, urged him in calls over the last few days to be a "statesman" and accept the results.
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Besides Mr. Kerry and General Eikenberry, Mr. Karzai was pushed hard by Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain during a telephone call on Monday, European officials said. The British ambassador to Afghanistan joined the American and United Nations officials at Mr. Karzai’s Tuesday news conference.
Everyone in bold deserves a kudos as well, especially the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.
And here is video from CBS News:
h/t Oysterface
Direct YouTube link
Also, an excellent video at NECN of the actual press conference featuring Senator Kerry and President Karzai. (h/t Karenc)
Update 2
For those interested in reading the tea leaves, Marc Ambinder has an interesting report. It is hard to know from these anonymously sourced articles, but this is illuminating:
President Obama won't decide whether to send more troops to Afghanistan until the country's political disputes settle down, senior administration officials said. On the advice of several key members of his war council, including National Security Advisor Gen. James Jones and Vice President Joe Biden, Obama plans to wait until Afghanistan holds a run-off presidential election on November 7, these officials said. Speaking to reporters late yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the new administration strategy couldn't wait on a new Afghan government because the political situation might not be resolved for months, according to the Associated Press.
But an administration official said that one key question would be answered relatively soon, and said it would effect Obama's decision: whether the Taliban's disruption of the first Afghanistan election was a "one-off."
More analyis from Spencer Ackerman.
Update 3
David Agnatius has an interesting article on Kerry:
John Kerry's star turn
Doha, Qatar — For Sen. John Kerry, it must be sweet vindication: Frustrated in his hopes of being president or secretary of state, he has found a role as a kind of roving ambassador -- negotiating with foreign leaders who are otherwise at odds with Washington.
Kerry’s star turn as a mediator came this week in Kabul, where his series of meetings with President Hamid Karzai helped produce a breakthrough agreement for a runoff election to resolve allegations of fraud in last August’s balloting. Karzai accepted an international commission’s decision to throw out about one-third of his votes. That pushed his total below 50 percent and triggered the Nov. 7 runoff with Abdullah Abdullah, the former Afghan foreign minister.
Kerry’s diplomatic leverage stems from the fact that he’s at once an insider and an outsider -- close to President Obama but not formally a member of his team. In the discussions with Karzai, Kerry worked closely with Karl Eikenberry, the U.S. ambassador in Kabul, and with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But as chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, he has more flexibility than he would have as an administration official. And in the case of Afghanistan, he was able to ease some of the tension between Karzai and Richard Holbrooke, the administration’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Kerry’s role in the Afghan negotiations was partly an accident of timing. He had arrived Friday on a previously scheduled fact-finding trip geared toward Afghanistan policy more generally, and he met that night with Karzai. The meetings continued through the weekend and resumed this week after a quick visit by Kerry on Monday to Pakistan.
Read the rest at the link.
Update 4
President Obama:
I want to give particular thanks to Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and his team, who have been working tirelessly throughout this process. I also want to commend Senator John Kerry, who was in the region traveling and ended up working extensively with Ambassador Eikenberry and was extraordinarily constructive and very helpful. So I think he deserves great congratulations.
Video of President Obama's remarks on Afghanistan.