Given GOP insurgent Marco Rubio's anemic fundraising out of the gate, I was worried my prediction of a Rubio victory next year against popular Gov. Charlie Crist would be a big bust. But no, I haven't underestimated the angry GOP Right. This cycle, they will win some pretty big primaries against more mainstream moderate establishment-backed Republicans, Florida among them.
Quinnipiac. 10/12-18. All voters. MoE 3% (8/19 results)
Republican gubernatorial primary
Crist (R) 50 (55)
Rubio (R) 35 (26)
That's a 14-point swing in less than two months, with Crist running radio ads and Rubio still lacking the funds to go on the air. Yet on the ground, all the action is with Rubio's camp, and he's starting to get bigger guns coming to his support, like Sens. Jim DeMint and, just yesterday, Jim Inhofe. George Will is betting on Rubio as well. It's just really hard to overcome images like this one:
With conservative dead-enders flexing their muscles in the primary process, Crist's chances will be tough. While a party switch (a la Arlen Specter) isn't out of the realm of possibilities, few think it would happen. More plausible -- Crist drops out of the GOP race and runs as an independent. We'd have a replay of the NY-23 race with a split right -- a dynamic that may not be so rare this cycle.
Incidentally, Republicans would hold the seat easily with Crist according to that latest Q-poll. He leads Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek 51-31. Against Rubio, it's an iffier proposition -- Meek leads 36-33.