Less than two weeks to go until Election Day 2009, and a mere 54 weeks to go until Election Day 2010....
VA-Gov: McDonnell Taking Commanding Lead According to PPP
There is virtually nothing good in the latest round of data from the crew over at Public Policy Polling (nominally a Democratic pollster, but a team that produces some of the best data in the game). In their new survey, they have Republican Bob McDonnell taking a double-digit lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (52-40). A sizeable enthusiasm gap is developing, according to the pollsters. What's more--the circumstances at the top of the ticket may be having an impact on matters downballot: the GOP has now forged double-digit leads for both Lt. Governor and Attorney General, as well as a ten-point (46-36) edge on the generic legislative ballot.
Changing tactics up a bit, Democrat Creigh Deeds is going positive as the race heads into the final days. Here is an ad that was launched today featuring the President singing the praises of the candidate, something he will do in person next week when he campaigns for Deeds in Hampton Roads.
NY-Gov: Second Poll In As Many Days Shows Paterson In Deep Trouble
Quinnipiac comes out with new numbers today, and they confirm to a great extent the ugly numbers for incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson that we saw in yesterday's edition of the Wrap-Up. Paterson still gets crushed in the new Quinnipiac poll, both in the primary (down 61-19 to Andrew Cuomo) and the general election (down 54-32 to Rudy Giuliani). If Cuomo and Giuliani meet heads-up, Democrat Andrew Cuomo continues to hold the edge by a modest margin (50-40). Of course, neither Giuliani nor Cuomo have made their 2010 intentions known. In the clash between the two declared candidates for the race, Paterson and unpopular former Republican Congressman Rick Lazio are tied at 38%.
FL-Sen/FL-Gov: Rasmussen Confirms Rubio Surge, New Gov #s from Q Poll
Earlier this evening, Markos reported on new numbers from Quinnipiac that showed insurgent hard-right candidate Marco Rubio on the move against the establishment GOP candidate, Governor Charlie Crist. This afternoon, Rasmussen released their own polling on the race, and it completely confirms the movement seen by the Q poll. Rasmussen has Crist leading by fourteen points (49-35). Meanwhile, Quinnipiac also polled the gubernatorial showdown between likely GOP nominee Bill McCollum and Democrat Alex Sink. McCollum, according to the pollster, has a very slight lead (36-32). Looking inside the numbers a bit, this could be the function of name recognition. While neither candidate is well know, nearly 50% of voters have some opinion on McCollum, while just 31% of voters have an opinion of Sink.
NV-Sen: Reid Still In Bad Shape--Could Be Helped By Public Option
An interesting new poll out of the Silver State, conducted by Research 2000 on behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. While the topline trial heat results are pretty interesting (Reid trails both leading Republicans by five points), there is much more to be mined from the other questions about Reid in the poll. Among the highlights: Reid only has a 55% favorability rating among Democrats, and of those who disapprove of him, a majority of both Democrats and Independents believe that he is not progressive enough. Finally, if Reid fails to push a public option through Congress, 31% say that will make them less likely to vote for him in 2010, versus just 17% who say that will help Reid earn their vote.
MI-Gov: GOP Looking Very Strong In Open-Seat Gubernatorial Race
If you were wondering if the Democratic brand name was in any immediate peril in a hard-hit state like Michigan, wonder no more. Democratic Lt. Governor John Cherry, somewhat of a default nominee for the Democrats at this point, trails virtually every serious Republican candidate. Conservative Congressman Peter Hoekstra leads the GOP primary field (barely), and he leads Cherry by seven points (40-33). Meanwhile, Republican Attorney General Mike Cox has the largest lead over the Democratic standard bearer, leading Cherry by fifteen points (45-30).
THE MONEY CHASE: A Handful of Interesting Money Headlines
Yes, the deadline for 3rd Quarter campaign reports was last week, but there are a couple of headlines today worth perusing as candidates search for the almighty dollar. One guy that did not have to search too far was Kentucky Democratic Senate Candidate Jack Conway, who decided that he wanted to report a total of over $2 million for the cycle-to-date. So he cut a check for the difference, which wound up being a little over a hundred grand. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, stealth candidate Kelly Ayotte (the GOP standard-bearer who has yet to utter a single position on a single issue, apparently) got a cool thousand dollar check from a guy with a pretty clear ideological profile--former Senator Rick Santorum. Might he be trying to buy some New Hampshire love in advance of the 2012 Presidential election? Meanwhile, out west in Oregon, the anemic fundraising of supposed Republican frontrunner Jason Atkinson (just $2000 raised) is leading some to openly wonder if he is contemplating abandoning the race.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- Democrats got a potentially competitive candidate in IL-16 where Freeport (pop. 25,000) Mayor George Gaulrapp will seek the Democratic nomination to take on longtime GOP incumbent Don Manzullo.
- Don't assume for a second that former Governor Terry Branstad has the GOP nomination locked up in the Iowa Governor's race. There are now two GOP contenders levelling their cannons at him for insufficient conservatism.
- Best wishes for speedy recoveries to two political figures: former Governor and current HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, who had surgery for skin cancer today, as well as Oregon Republican Congressman Greg Walden, who became the first member of Congress to apparently contract the H1N1 strain of the flu.
- Best wishes as well for GOP Congressional candidate Jon del Arroz, who dropped out of his planned challenge to California Democrat Jerry McNerney. He left the race upon learning that his young son was diagnosed with cystic fibrosis.
- In other November election news, it looks like Democrat Bill Thompson still faces an uphill climb in his bid to defeat
Republican Independent Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg in the battle to be Mayor of New York.