First, if someone else has just diaried this, my apologies. Just ask me to delete. I just checked the list and did a search, but sometimes that's not enough...
Anyway, breaking news out of Tegucigalpa has it that de facto President Michelletti has just agreed to take part in a process which would culminate in his stepping down.
U.S. State Department officials had flown to Honduras this week to try to break the stalemate, and last night's news was that they were staying a few extra days....now we know why. The big thumb came down.
However, if you go look at Narconews Al Giordano, is saying, yes, well, maybe. The whole thing has to be approved by the golpista Congress and the Supreme Court, so it could be thrown out the window.
More below the fold.
If you hadn't been current on the news from Honduras, last month, deposed President Zelaya snuck back into the country and took refuge in the Brazilian embassy, which created a heightened sense of crisis in the country. I thought it was brilliant, because it put the coup government on the spot to resolve the crisis. Moreover, an increasing number of countries, the U.S. included, were starting to say that they wouldn't recognize the November elections if they took place in the current political environment.
Here's what the U.S. was saying (from the NY Times):
Mr. Micheletti’s government had argued that the Nov. 29 election would put an end to the crisis. But the United States, the Organization of American States and the United Nations suggested they would not recognize the results of the elections without a pre-existing agreement on Mr. Zelaya’s status.
So, Michelletti, as power mad as he has been, really had to start to at least give the appearance of negotiating in good faith. The Honduran government has been infamous for appearing to do one thing, but if underneath that it really doesn't want to do it, mysteriously erasing all progress in one fell swoop. That was my experience there, and it is perhaps what Al is catching on to when he says, "not so fast."
So, here's a section of the Times articlethat represents the current mainstream media announcements:
According to Mr. Micheletti, the accord reached late Thursday would establish a unity government and a verification commission to ensure that its conditions are carried out. It would also create a truth commission to investigate the events of the past few months.
The agreement also reportedly asks the international community to recognize the results of the elections and to lift any sanctions that were imposed after the coup. The suspension of international aid has stalled badly needed projects in one of the region’s poorest countries
Here's the caveat:
Negotiators for both men were expected to meet Friday to work out final details. It was not clear what would happen if the Honduran Congress rejected the deal.
Narconews' analysis of this is that it probably won't be difficult to get this through the Honduran Congress, for reasons he cites below, but Al's not so sure about the Supreme Court.
From Narconews:
While there is some healthy distrust already over whether Congress will gin up on its end and really vote to restore Zelaya, that probably will be easier to accomplish than many believe. Two words: Pepe Lobo. The National Party candidate for President, Lobo is leading in the polls. He obviously wants very much for the November 29 “elections” to become internationally recognized elections. His party holds 55 of 128 seats in Honduras’ unicameral legislature, just ten short of a majority. There are at least 22 Liberal Party members that have publicly indicated they want Zelaya back as president, plus 11 minor party legislators most of whom are likely to go along with such a deal. Faced with such a patchwork majority, look for most of the 62 Liberal Party members in Congress to fold and go with the flow. The Congressional vote is not likely to prove a stumbling block to implementing this agreement.
The real problem could be the authoritarian Supreme Court. Micheletti’s invention of a non-existent clause in the agreement, one that requires the court’s approval of it, points to where the stalling tactic will come from. This is the same Supreme Court that carried out the coup d’etat on June 28 and has micro-managed the regime’s affairs all summer and fall on a level that would not be appropriate or legal in most countries. Because Honduras’ 1982 Constitution is such a self-conflicted document with many articles that contradict each other, the court has been cherry-picking which laws to discard and which to interpret, often badly.
So, maybe we shouldn't be so fast to declare victory, since things can change.
However, I'm counting on the obvious pressure the State Dept officials went down there to apply and the continual civil unrest as a motivating factors for even this Supreme Court. Honduran civil society is now organized as never before, and it is becoming a force in and of itself. If anything good comes from this coup, that's it. No more apathy and tolerance of despots.
UPDATE: CEPR economist, Mark Weisbrot, has now weighed in on this too. Here's part of their press release. One of the few apart from Narconews to acknowledge the importance of the resistance movement in all of this.
Weisbrot also noted the importance of the Honduran resistance movement in achieving an apparent resolution to the crisis that favored democracy over dictatorship: "The Honduran people never gave up, defying repression every day to demonstrate in favor of democracy. The National Resistance Front was disciplined and organized." This also helped make it clear that any elections held under the dictatorship would never be seen as legitimate.
Weisbrot noted that there were important political divisions within the Honduran elite: "[Conservative, National Party candidate] Porfirio Lobo wants the elections to be considered legitimate, since he's projected to win."
UPDATE 2
Here's the OAS press release on the agreement:
STATEMENT OF THE OAS SECRETARY GENERAL REGARDING THE AGREEMENT REACHED IN HONDURAS
October 30, 2009
“It is a moment of great satisfaction to Honduras and its people, to the Americas, to the OAS and to democracy in general, because a grave crisis such as the one experienced in the last few months will definitively be resolved with the power of the word and reason.
“I congratulate the Honduran citizens for having reached the goal that we all aimed for, the signing of an agreement made by and for Hondurans. President Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti, along with their delegations, gave a significant show of flexibility and patriotic sentiment.
“All of the countries of the Americas and in general the international community also have reason to celebrate, because all together they played a key and almost unprecedented role upon maintaining at all times a common position without divisions.
“Specially important was the role played by the governments of the region that sent representatives to Tegucigalpa during the crisis to help along the dialogue. Of particular note is the contribution of the United States and the Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Thomas Shannon, who, despite great personal cost, became deeply involved in the search for a solution to the problem. The role of President Óscar Arias, on whose proposal the final agreement was based, was also fundamental.
“And it is to me a special satisfaction to assess the role developed by the OAS in the crisis. From the same day on which the conflict erupted, with a Special Session of the Permanent Council, and until the announcement today of an agreement in Tegucigalpa, we put all of our energies to find a peaceful and consensual solution to the crisis. With respect to those efforts it’s necessary to highlight the outstanding work of John Biehl and Víctor Rico, who represented me on the field during negotiations.
“Our work nevertheless doesn’t end here, because it is still necessary to go farther until Honduras may return to democratic and institutional normalcy. As was the case until now, the OAS and its General Secretariat will continue at all times to support Honduras and its people so the ship may find safe harbor.
“In the first place, we must designate the composition of the mission that will observe the elections of November 29. Also, we must designate the two representatives of the international community that will be part of the Commission of Verification of the agreements. I can tell you now they will be high-level officials, and that soon we will send out a delegation that will work in a more permanent way on the ground. And lastly we must work towards the lifting of the suspension from the Organization that weighs over Honduras, and that will have to be decided in a new Special General Assembly that we hope to hold soon.”
UPDATE 3
Statement by Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary General
New York, 30 October 2009 - Statement attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General on Honduras
The Secretary-General is encouraged by news from Tegucigalpa that an agreement was reached last night between President Zelaya and the de facto authorities in Honduras to resolve the country's political crisis. He hopes Honduras is now on the path to the full restoration of democratic, constitutional rule.
UPDATE 4
THIS is on the front page of the State Dept website. Clinton will being putting enormous pressure on all parts of the Honduran govt. to carry through with this agreement. She does NOT like to eat her words.
Breakthrough in Honduras
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Secretary of State
Islamabad, Pakistan
October 30, 2009
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton delivered the following remarks Friday morning, October 30, 2009, in Islamabad, Pakistan:
I'm very pleased to announce that we've had a breakthrough in negotiations in Honduras.
I want to congratulate the people of Honduras as well as President Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti for reaching an historic agreement. I also congratulate Costa Rican President Oscar Arias for the important role he has played in fashioning the San Jose process and the OAS for its role in facilitating the successful round of talks.
As you know, I sent Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon and his deputy Craig Kelly and the White House NSC representative for the Western Hemisphere Dan Restrepo to Honduras yesterday after speaking with both President Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti last Friday to urge them finally, once and for all to reach an agreement.
I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that having suffered a rupture of its democratic and constitutional order overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue.
This is a big step forward for the Inter-American system and its commitment to democracy as embodied in the Inter-American Democratic Charter. I'm very proud that I was part of the process, that the United States was instrumental in the process. But I'm mostly proud of the people of Honduras who have worked very hard to have this matter resolved peacefully.
We're looking forward to the elections that will be held on November 29, and working with the people and government of Honduras to realize the full return of democracy and a better future for the Honduran people.