As the weather finally becomes Fall-like in Southern California (some places in the 40s this morning--oh my!), things on the campaign trail can actually be expected to heat up over the next few weeks.
More candidate announcements are likely, given that we are coming up on one year until Election 2010. Campaign finance reports are due to the FEC within ten days, and we can expect things to heat up in both Virginia and New Jersey rather soon (to say nothing of CA-10 and NY-23, where elections will also be held on the 3rd of November).
Let's start the week off...
KY-Sen: Grayson No Lock To Hold Senate Seat for GOP In Kentucky
An intriguing new set of numbers out of the Bluegrass State, as we look ahead to 2010. Rasmussen polls Kentucky's Senate race, and finds that presumptive GOP frontrunner Trey Grayson is dead-even (40-40) with Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, while he leads Democratic Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo by seven points (44-37). If quasi-Libertarian superhero Rand Paul is the nominee for the GOP, Conway beats him (42-38), while Mongiardo does not (43-38). Among the most interesting stats, the Rasmussen poll has fairly high job approval (59%) for Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, which means that Mongiardo's fairly high-profile dissing of the Governor last week might wind up backfiring on the disloyal lite guv.
VA-Gov: Deeds Getting A Lot of Help For Final Campaign Push
As the brief boomlet for Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia Governors race seems to have hit a plateau (as evidenced by the release this afternoon of another SurveyUSA poll showing a double-digit McDonell lead), Deeds is getting some high-profile assistance as the campaign enters the final month. The goal? To snag those elusive last handful of votes needed to forge ahead of GOP nominee Bob McDonnell, who has had a narrow but stubborn lead throughout the past few months. The most popular politician in the state, Senator Mark Warner, has begun a campaign on behalf of the Democrat, as he stars in Deeds latest ad extolling the virtues of the Democratic state Senator. Warner is also expected to stump for Deeds, and host a fundraiser on his behalf. Meanwhile, the DNC continues to see a path to victory here, as evidenced by their decision to throw an additional million dollars of support into the race.
NH-Sen/NH-01: New UNH Poll Confirms Modest GOP Lead In Open-Seat Race
The University of New Hampshire is out with new numbers in the open-seat U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Republican Judd Gregg, and they confirm other recent pollsters by giving Republican state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a seven-point edge (40-33) over Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes. The new poll also looked at some gauges of voter intensity, and shows a ridiculously fluid race, as just 6% of voters are locked in to their candidate. 86% are still persuadable in this Senate race. Hodes has modest leads (37-28) over either of the other major GOP candidates (Sean Mahoney and Ovide Lamontagne). At the Congressional level, the 1st district race could be quite close, as Democratic incumbent Carol Shea Porter (42/31) has higher name recognition, but lower net favorability, than her GOP rival, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (28/11).
WI-Gov: Early Signs Point To An All-Milwaukee Gubernatorial Race
A lot of very intriguing numbers from a new poll conducted for Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Wisconsin. The new poll (PDF file) shows Barack Obama fairly strong in this traditionally closely contested state, with a 57/40 spread in his approval. This new survey does not measure general election trial heats for 2010, but does look at the gubernatorial primaries. On the GOP side, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker easily leads the field, with a 39% to 14% lead over former Congressman Mark Neumann. On the Democratic side, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has a sizeable early lead over Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton (38-16). Of all the gubernatorial candidates, Barrett had the best spread in his favorabilities (36-12), with Walker not far behind (30-16). While the poll does not check on the Senate race, it does take the public's temperature on Senator Russ Feingold, and find him with good (but not spectacular) favorability numbers (54-30).
CA-10: GOP Nominee Flogs Internal Poll Claiming Close Race
File this under "grab the salt until there is some corroborating evidence", but Republican nominee David Harmer claims he trails by just six points against John Garamendi in an internal poll conducted for his campaign and the NRCC. There are enough qualifying statements in the article that make it appear as if the numbers were manipulated to Hades and back in order to dance in such a way that the Harmer campaign could use. One of their biggest claims: that Harmer leads Garamendi among "voters who know both candidates". Seeing as it is unlikely that anybody other than Republicans will have heard of Harmer (who is an electoral rookie), this is not the boldest claim ever made. Garamendi, for his part, laughed off the poll: "Look, this is a poll designed to raise money from the Republican base. It has no bearing on reality. If the Republicans think the Democrats are just going to sit back and go to sleep in this election, they are wrong. There is no way I am going to let that happen."
That special election will take place on November 3rd.
THE MONEY CHASE: 2010 Candidates Start Showing Their Cards
For the next two weeks, expect to see something on the Money Chase for the 2010 elections every night on the Wrap. That is because a number of campaigns, in advance of the FEC deadlines, are going to be releasing their third quarter fundraising numbers. Some of the big hitters are getting their numbers out early, including one prominent Senate candidate and one leading candidate for Governor. In Illinois, it was a third quarter haul of about $1.6 million for the Senate campaign of Republican Mark Kirk, the suburban Chicago Congressman who is likely to meet Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in 2010. Meanwhile, one leading Democratic candidate for Governor, Florida's Alex Sink, also put together an impressive third quarter haul, pulling in $1.6 million, as well.
NJ-Gov: A Momentum Shift in Gubernatorial Campaign?
According to a report which was first cited by Politico and then picked up by the Newark Star-Ledger, national Democrats are apparently beginning to see Jon Corzine's bid to be re-elected as Governor of New Jersey as a winnable race. This comes in the wake of tightening polls and a debate late last week where frontrunning Republican candidate Chris Christie struggled, mainly because he continued to insist on avoiding specifics that his opponents did not attempt to conceal. Christie's undoing might be coming in the form of Independent candidate Chris Daggett, who may be siphoning votes from the Republican standard-bearer. The Star-Ledger article intimated that President Obama may well return to the state before Election Day. Vice President Joe Biden will campaign with Corzine this week.
FL-Sen: "Bush's Brain" Backs Marco Rubio (But Not Verbally...Yet)
One of the more intriguing little moments of Campaign 2010 has just happened, as longtime confidant to President George W. Bush, Karl Rove, confirmed that he sent a sizeable campaign contribution to the campaign of Florida GOP insurgent Marco Rubio, who is challenging Charlie Crist for the right to represent the Sunshine State in the US Senate. Rove admitted to sending Rubio's campaign a total of $1000 during the third quarter of the year. Despite lopsided polls and even more lopsided FEC figures, Rubio still is attracting high profile supporters (including a notable recent of praise from former Gov. Jeb Bush, who also excoriated the NRSC for endorsing Crist 18 months prior to the election. It is clear that Rubio is not going away as a potential barrier to Crist's coronation to the US Senate.
AZ-Sen: McCain About To Get A High Profile Primary?
In his morning edition of "The Fix", Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post reported that a longtime rumor in Arizona right-wing circles may be edging closer to reality--a primary challenge for veteran Senator and 2008 presidential nominee John McCain by former right-wing Congressman JD Hayworth. McCain is already facing one of the leaders of the anti-immigrant Minutemen movement, Chris Simcox.