A surprising amount of new polling data as we kick off the new week. Contrary to the past two weeks, some of it is actually good news for Democrats, although there are a couple of brutal polls in there as well for the Blue team.
DE-Sen: First Poll of Cycle Gives Biden Lead over Castle
The pending "Clash of the Titans" in Delaware between longtime Republican Congressman Mike Castle and state Attorney General Beau Biden has taken an interesting turn, according to a new poll from GOP pollsters Susquehanna Research. They now have Biden staked to a five-point lead over Castle (45-40), his first lead of the campaign. A smattering of polls last month showed anywhere between a toss-up and a small lead for Castle. Since then, of course, Castle has shown his commitment to the "party of no" by voting against health care reform. While there are other variables present (Biden did just return from a tour of duty in the Middle East, for example), it is awfully tempting to conclude that Castle's loyalty to the GOP might be costing him politically in a state where John McCain logged less than 40% of the vote.
NY-Gov/NY-Sen: Democrats Improve Slightly In Latest Polling
There is also reasonably good news for the Democrats in new numbers out of New York state, assuming the Democrat in question, of course, is not Governor David Paterson. In a new poll conducted by Siena College (PDF file), it is clear that Paterson's early jump on the campaign (he is already running ads) is not enhancing his electability as of yet. He still trails Republican Rudy Giuliani by twenty three points (56-33), and he now trails former Congressman Rick Lazio, as well (42-39). The good news for the Democrats is that state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is in a much stronger position this month when paired against Rudy Giuliani. After only leading Giuliani by seven points last month, Cuomo now holds a twelve point edge over Giuliani (53-41). He also easily defeats Lazio (67-22). Cuomo also has his largest lead to date in a prospective primary with Paterson, holding an almost unbelievable 75-16 lead over the incumbent Governor, a lead that the Albany Times-Union would like to remind readers is, indeed, statistically significant.
While Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is still vulnerable, her polling numbers have improved substantially in the past month. She has cut her deficit in a battle with Rudy Giuliani by more than half. Last month, Giuliani enjoyed a 17-point lead over the incumbent (53-36). This month, it is down to six points (49-43). Furthermore, after trailing former Governor George Pataki for months, Gillibrand has actually opened up a statistically insignificant lead (45-44) over him, as well.
IA-Gov/IA-Sen: New DMR Poll Shows Tough Numbers for Dems
Not all of the polling news over the weekend was amenable to Democrats. Perhaps the ugliest data set comes from the state of Iowa, where Barack Obama launched his road to the White House, and where he scored an easy victory over John McCain last November. A new poll on the Iowa Governor's race shows incumbent Democrat Chet Culver in an extremely precarious position for re-election. Not only does Culver trail former GOP Governor Terry Branstad by a substantial margin (57-33), but he also trails lesser-known conservative GOP candidate Bob Vander Platts (45-37). Culver's job approval rating is a brutal 40/49 spread, which just proves again that the current climate is simply brutal for state executives.
Meanwhile, on the Senate side of the political equation, Chuck Grassley's approval rating has taken a hit this year (down to 57%), but he still maintains a solid lead in his 2010 re-election bid. Grassley holds a 57-30 lead in the Senate survey over Democrat Roxanne Conlin. However, it is worth noting that even this would be his closest electoral contest in decades.
AR-02: Longtime Dem Incumbent Vulnerable, According to PPP
If there is a legitimate narrative developing for the 2010 electoral cycle, backed by polling evidence, it is that the South is shaping up to be pretty hostile electoral territory for Democrats next year. The latest piece of evidence to support that comes from central Arkansas, where longtime Democratic incumbent Vic Snyder holds only infinitesimal leads over three leading GOP challengers. His closest contest is with former GOP U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin, a contest which Snyder leads 44-43. The other two races are 2-3 point affairs, which is particularly jarring, because the other two GOP candidates in the field are virtual unknowns.
MO-Sen: New PPP Poll Not Out Yet, But Hints Dropping Right and Left
It started with a NRSC press release sent out Monday morning that dropped the potential bombshell that virtual unknown Chuck Purgason was polling in double-digits against establishment candidate Roy Blunt, the Congressman who has spent most of his recent years in the GOP leadership. The memo also suggested that Blunt was "struggling" to crack 50%. David Goldstein of the Kansas City Star did some follow-up, and found both statements to be true, albeit with Blunt still staked to a sizeable edge. The actual poll is not released yet, but after talking with Tom Jensen at PPP, the Star revealed the results to be 50-15 Blunt, a solid lead, but underwhelming for someone who was supposed to have an essentially clear field. The poll also apparently will reveal a continued dead heat in the general election between Blunt and presumed Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan.
IN POLITICAL NEWS....
- TX-Gov: The speculation is that her gubernatorial campaign might be circling the drain, but Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is getting a lot of love from familiar faces: not a single member of Texas' congressional delegation has endorsed incumbent Governor Rick Perry. Furthermore, such is Hutchison's credibility with her DC colleagues that it now appears unlikely that any of them will back Perry, preferring to either endorse KBH or remain neutral.
- Race for the House: In some fairly interesting analysis and commentary, Tom Jensen over at PPP raises a point of real concern for Democrats: the sizeable proportion of voters who don't like either political party seem more predisposed to vote Republican (at least, for now).
- IL-Sen: Once considered a candidate for the Senate, Chicago Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky is now endorsing one of those candidates: she has thrown her support to Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.
- OR-04: The now-famous tale of GOP candidate Sid Leiken and his mother the purported pollster has now come to its fitting conclusion, with Leiken getting hit with a $2250 fine for running afoul of a law designed to prevent candidates from converting campaign funds into monies for personal use.
- CO-Gov: After getting rolled out of the race last week, apparently Josh Penry wants everyone to know that he has been playing peacemaker, trying to build a bridge between his supporters and Scott McInnis' people. Heh...now that Tom Tancredo is looking at the race? Good luck with that diplomacy thing, Mr. Penry.
- PA-15: Nice to see the DNC trying to play a little offense in this election cycle. It looks like they are going to run a radio campaign against potentially vulnerable GOP Rep. Charlie Dent on the issue of his vote against health care reform. The Democrats already have a first-tier challenger in the race in the form of Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan. They are also running an ad against Jim Gerlach, who represents PA-06 but is presently in the midst of a gubernatorial campaign. It is part of a national ad buy getting after more than two dozen potentially vulnerable GOP incumbents. A similar campaign in Florida is going after longtime GOP Reps. Bill Young and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
- IL-Sen: If you have wondered why Mark Kirk has been behaving so strangely (including his recent embrace of Sarah Palin, which is now being properly mocked by the DSCC), this might explain it. His right-wing opponent, Patrick Hughes, appears to be quite serious about taking down the Congressman. In fact, Hughes heads off to the nation's capital this week, meeting with a variety of right-wing groups and entities trying to drum up support for his insurgent candidacy.