Commentators on all sides will do their best to turn a loss by Gov. Jon Corzine into bad news for President Obama and good news for conservatives like Palin -- even if the results in New Jersey have more to do with highway toll increases than anything that the president has done. I say we make the following point no matter the outcome.
Faced with plummeting approval and a rising unemployment rate, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has known for at least a year that his re-election campaign would be in trouble.
Indeed, Corzine's approval rating stood at just 46 precent a year ago, according to a statewide Fairleigh Dickinson University poll in November of 2008. At the same time, the state's unemployment rate had climbed to six percent -- which, while still below the national average at time -- represented a two point jump from the previous year and represented a total loss of jobs of 27,000.
Now, if you are a governor like Jon Corzine, you roll up your sleeves and get to work. If you are a governor like Sarah Palin, you pack your bags, go home, and cash in on a book.
Palin saw the same writing on the wall as her New Jersey colleague. Her approval ratings as Alaska governor had plummeted from 64 percent in the afterglow of the Republican National Convention in August 2008 to 54 percent May 2009.
And, had Palin not quit, she would be batting the impact of the recession on her state just like any other governor. Despite all the oil revenues, seasonal employment swings, and the state's massive share of federal pork, Alaska's unemployment rate has jumped from 6.7 to 8.4 percent in the last year. Add to this that Palin would have suffered embarrassing losses in the state legislature, which now has rejected her bid to reject federal stimulus funds.
So, no matter whether Corzine wins or loses tomorrow night I will be making the point that at least he didn't quit when the going got tough. Faced with similar tough times -- and what undoubtedly would have been a sharp battle in 2010 for re-election as governor or for the Senate, Palin turned tail and ran at a time when her state needed her the most.
If people are out there making hay of political clout in the bizarre NY-23 race, and try to link to her to GOP success in New Jersey or Virginia, I think the point that deserted her post at a time of need bears repeating again and again.