Florida Governor Charlie Crist's entrance into the race for Mel Martinez's Senate seat filled a great many Democrats with some disappointment and some decent reasoning; after all, Charlie Crist would have been a lot more progressive than Mel Martinez was on some major issues. Immediately upon entering the race, Crist was endorsed by the national Republican establishment. Tea-baggers didn't like it and began to steadily stand beside Jeb Bush favorite Marco "Super-Conservative" Rubio.
With New York 23 now blue for the first time since the Civil War the Tea-Baggers are setting their sights on the Florida Senate race. Things are moving quicker down there than you might think and it's quickly moving in a bad direction for Charlie Crist.
Senator John Cornyn, the head of the NRSC, is backing off quickly from Crist. "Big John" even implies that Crist sought the endorsement of the Republican Party establishment in D.C. before entering the race, meaning he had assurances of an easy primary victory. So much for that. Charlie Crist is now in the fight of his life.
The Republican primary in Florida will not attract a tremendous number of voters; it's a primary for one, and in an off-year. Worse yet for Charlie Crist, and to those who like seeing moderate Republicans, the Republican primary in Florida will be a closed primary. No independents and no Democrats will be able to vote for the once self-described "green governor".
Barack Obama is more popular in Florida than Charlie Crist.(poll) Charlie Crist has taken quite the slide in popularity down there, and there seems to be little reason to think it will end soon. Charlie is getting squeezed in an accidental-pincer move; Rubio from the right, Meeks from the left. As Keats once said, things fall apart- the center does not hold.
The pressure on Crist's right flank is only going to increase as Rubio continues to steadily build himself up. Endorsements from the Club For Greed(AKA, the Club For Growth) seem eminent. Of course, an endorsement from a Bush- former and still-popular Governor Jeb Bush- would likely have a much larger impact on Rubio's chances. Rubio is considered a protege of the former Governor, and recent polling indicates that 7 out of 10 Republicans in Florida prefer Bush over Crist.
Despite the stated mission of this site, there is reason to think deeply on what is preferable in the short-term for the long-term; a Meeks-Crist contest seemed all but an inevitable-win for Crist but still an undeniable improvement on former-Senator Martinez, whereas a Meeks-Rubio contest seemed risky when one considers the consequences of a Meeks-failure. However, with the pressure on Crist's right continuing, it is truly possible that he will be severely bloodied by Rubio in that primary. It is certainly obvious, given the drop in his approval amongst Republicans, that Crist's polish is already being worn. While much of that is being driven by the absolutely-shitty economy in Florida, it is clear that there are other factors putting the squeeze on Governor Crist.
While I am not ready to make a prediction on the Republican primary, I am going to list what I'll be looking for in the coming months;
Jeb Bush.
Fund-raising.
More endorsements.(Club For Growth, elected officials, talk-radio, etc)
Major smear campaign.(see; "Charlie Crist is a closet-gay")
Candidate screw-ups.(as always)
For now, the momentum appears to be with Mr. Rubio.