I did a quick review of the Democrats in the House who voted against the public option reform bill, and noted a few interesting outcomes that seem to strengthen our hand in the Senate:
There was not a single Democratic defector in Lieberman's CT, Ben Nelson's NE, or Evan Bayh's IN.
There was only one Dem defector in anti-public-option Dem Sen. Blanche Lincoln's AR (and the junior senator of AR is a Dem making no threats - Mark Pryor). There was only one defector in Landrieu's LA - and one LA Republican, Coh, voted for the Dem bill (and the Repub bill as well, clever Coh from a Dem district!).
There were zero Dem defectors in McCain's AZ and in Lugar's IN.
The rest of the defecting Dems were in the south, of course. But even there, Blanche Lincoln would be one of only two Democratic AR representatives voting against the public option, and Landrieu would be the only Dem in LA standing with Vitter, of all people.
So, could these plays, and Lugar, be Obama's trump card?
I wonder. Recalling Obama's profuse praise of Lugar, could he be working on Lugar behind the scenes to get his "yea" vote for cloture in the Senate? That makes sense to me, if Obama needs an additional bargaining chip to get Lieberman in line. I found a response online from Lugar to a constituent from Democratic Underground, and he didn't voice a single wingnut point - unlike Lieberman http://bit.ly/... Lugar posted an anti-health-reform statement in July, but it also has no wingnut talking points, and he hasn't updated it since the CBO reports that contradict his "economy first/reduce deficit" talking points http://bit.ly/...
I can just picture Obama setting up that possibility, then sending Rahm (whom I dislike intensely, btw) to Lieberman to tell him: "Not a single CT Dem voted against reform, despite the fact that CT is the insurance corporate state. You can crawl off to the minority party, but we can draw Lugar to join Spectre at least to pass cloture for health reform. We'd keep our majority without you, and you'll retire or leave this earth before you chair another committee." Of course, there'd be some choice expletives there, unless Obama has reformed Rahm so much that he can keep a civil tongue while dressing-down the oh-so-spiritual Lieberman.
McCain's already out of the question - he'll probably be challenged from the right, another Conservative Party challenger, perhaps. That worked out so well in NY [snark]. Oh, an interesting aside: NY had the most Dem defectors - three. So it's truly exceptional that we got a new Dem Representative there who voted for the public option. It gave Dennis Kucinich the leeway to vote against the public option. Yep, that mavericky lefty Dennis, got to vote his conscious and still let Obama and Pelosi have a two-vote margin of victory.
I think keeping Nebraska, Connecticut and Indiana Democratic Representatives, and every Arkansas and Louisiana representative but one from defecting, plus drawing a Lousiana Republican, strengthened our hand with those balking Senate Dems. What say you?