Rasmussen keeps it streak alive (on more than one level), a pair of national polls paint bad...and good...news for Democrats, one exploratory campaign jumps in while another jumps out, and should we take anything from the fact that one New York pollster isn't even bothering polling Rudy Giuliani anymore? All that, and more, in the Monday edition of the Wrap...
NY-Gov: Dems Now Favored to Hold Gov's Seat, Even With Paterson
It has been quite a while since we were able to use the words "good news", "poll", and "Governor David Paterson" in the same sentence. And while his numbers are still frightful by traditional political standard, his new numbers in the month poll from Siena (PDF File) represent some improvement for the Governor. His favorabilities are up to a poor-but-no-longer-pathetic 36/53, and he now trails potential Democratic primary rival Andrew Cuomo by only forty-four points (67-23). Don't laugh: last month, Cuomo had nearly a sixty point edge (75-16). Meanwhile, Paterson also now leads the only name-brand Republican in the field, sporting a two-point advantage (42-40) over former Congressman Rick Lazio. Cuomo has, not surprisingly, a considerably wider edge (68-22) over Lazio. What was notable in this month's incarnation of the Siena poll is what was missing--they did not poll Rudy Giuliani this month, a sign that his decision to accept a job with the Rio 2016 Olympic Committee (as a security consultant) has actually relegated him to the sidelines in 2010.
IL-Gov/IL-Sen: New Polls Show Clear Frontrunners In Primary Races
With just over seven weeks until the first elections of 2010 (the primary elections in the state of Illinois), the Chicago Tribune decided to take an early reading of the competitive statewide races in the Land of Lincoln. It is worth pointing out that, without exception, the betting favorites are doing fairly well. Alexi Giannoulias leads the competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary with 31%, followed by both Cheryle Jackson (17%) and David Hoffman (9%). Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Mark Kirk has a nearly insurmountable lead, holding 41% of the vote while his nearest rival (Patrick Hughes, the supposed darling of the tea-party right) is sitting at just 3% of the vote.
By the way, the DSCC, anticipating that Kirk will be the eventual nominee, is having some fun at the Republican's expense. Taking note of the Congressman's flip-flopping...ahem...ideological flexibility, they have launched this rather amusing video.
Meanwhile, over on the gubernatorial side, the high-profile race is the Democratic primary, while the larger and more competitive field seems to reside in the GOP. On the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Pat Quinn has a solid lead over state Comptroller Dan Hynes (49-23). Meanwhile, the Republican primary is a bit more wide open, with the leader (former state Attorney General Jim Ryan) leading at just 26% of the vote. Three other candidates (Andy McKenna, Bill Brady, and Kirk Dillard) all are around the 10% mark, and there are still loads of undecideds. Election day in Illinois for the primaries is on February 2nd.
PA-Gov: Rasmussen Sees GOP Lead in Open Seat Gubernatorial Race
Rasmussen keeps its streak alive with new numbers from the Keystone State: almost cartoonish differences in the favorabilities between Republicans and Democrats, and huge Republican leads in 2010 trial heats. This particular poll has Republican frontrunner Tom Corbett with a double-digit lead over all Democratic comers. State Auditor Jack Wagner comes the closest, trailing Corbett by thirteen points (43-30). Corbett, according to the Ras, has a +41 split in his favorabilities (59-18), while not Democrats score better than a +7 split (Wagner--37/30). Not to sound like a broken record, but this would be yet another poll where Rasmussen sees the race in starkly more amenable terms for Republicans than comparable pollsters.
CO-Gov: Rasmussen Sees GOP Lead In Incumbent-Held Gubernatorial Race
The pro-Republican trend from Rasmussen continues, regardless of the presence of incumbency. In Colorado, Rasmussen gives Republican Scott McInnis an eight-point lead over Governor Bill Ritter (48-40). While most pollsters have had McInnis either tied or barely leading Ritter, it is noteworthy that this is yet another example of Rasmussen tending towards the pessimistic for Democratic candidates or officeholders. Another piece of evidence--32 surveys in 2009 have shown Democrats trailing in the Congressional Ballot test. Twenty-Eight of them have been from Rasmussen, versus just four by any other pollster.
NATIONAL: Dems Lead Generic Ballot, According to Two Pollsters
A pair of new national polls show Democrats hanging on to narrow leads on the generic Congressional ballot for 2010. In the case of the Gallup Poll, the three point Democratic edge (48-45) is pretty good news, since the same pollster had a four-point Republican lead last month. One piece of good news emerging from the Gallup survey: it looks like Democrats are finally staunching some of their bleeding with Independents. According to Gallup, most of the seven-point swing over the last month has come from Independent voters. While the poll should be heartening for Dems who have been accustomed to bad news as of late, it actually should also raise an eyebrow, since virtually no pollsters have seen favorable movement for Democrats on any level in the last four weeks of polling.
More in line with other pollsters were the new national numbers for PPP, which showed Democrats still leading the generic ballot by a couple of points (44-42). While still a Democratic lead, that is an erosion of the Democratic lead since last month, when the blue team was staked to an eight-point edge (46-38). Bear in mind, by the way, that these leads would still be predictive of Republican gains in the House in 2010. Democrats led the GOP by approximately seven points in last year's balloting, and would likely need a lead of around the same margin to avoid shedding at least some seats in the House.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- If you had been following me over at Twitter, you'd already know some of this stuff. Plus, you'd know that Toby Gerhart got robbed for the Heisman. [Note: Steve Singiser now ducks to avoid the rotten fruit hurled from the state of Alabama.]
- CA-Sen/CA-Gov: This morning, an interesting rumor popped up in the Golden State political world, courtesy of Chris Cillizza's The Fix: Tom Campbell, last seen as a moderate ex-Congressman trying to wrest away the Senate seat of Dianne Feinstein, might be flirting with the idea of jettisoning his Gubernatorial bid in favor of challenging Barbara Boxer in 2010. In one way, this idea makes a lot of sense: Campbell has no oxygen in the gubernatorial race, where free-spending opponents Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner are liable to self-fund by the millions in their efforts to win the open-seat gubernatorial race. Campbell might be better served in a Senate bid, where the current field is comprised of the hard-right state legislator Chuck DeVore (who is unlikely to be competitive in a general election) and the (thus far) unimpressive campaign of Carly Fiorina. Campbell, with his reputation as a centrist Republican, might have trouble surviving either primary, however.
- NY-Sen: Sometimes creating an exploratory committee does not actually mean that entrance to the race is imminent. Such is the case in the Empire State, where Jon Cooper, the Suffolk County legislator that virtually everyone assumed would be challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chose to endorse her, instead. Cooper credited his change of heart to a meeting he took with the Senator, from which he emerged favorably impressed. Jonathan Tasini is still challenging Gillibrand, who has spent most of 2009 coalescing Democratic support and snaring key endorsements.
- TX-Gov: The dominoes from November's decision by Houston Mayor Bill White to run for Governor continued today, when iconoclastic figure (and 2006 Independent gubernatorial candidate) Kinky Friedman made the expected announcement that he would forgo the gubernatorial election in 2010. A bit surprising, however, was that Friedman apparently had a fallback position--he will be running for state Agriculture Commissioner, instead.
- KS-03: It is starting to look more and more likely that 2008 Republican nominee Nick Jordan is consolidating a critical mass of support in his bid to be elected to the seat in 2010. One of his potential challengers on the right, state senator Jeff Colyer, instead announced he would not be running for the seat. He, instead, endorsed Jordan, a state senator in his own right who fell in 2008 to Democrat Dennis Moore, who announced his retirement in November.
- IA-03: Leonard Boswell is attracting almost as much attention from the opposing party as Blanche Lincoln (who has, as of last week, eight GOP opponents). Boswell drew his fourth GOP opponent this afternoon, as retired architect Mark Rees is planning a bid to challenge Boswell in this swing-y Des Moines based district. The leading candidates in this district are likely to be state senator Brad Zaun and former ISU Wrestling Coach Jim Gibbons.