If you send health care reform to reconciliation, you would have to strip out many of the proivate market regulatory reforms in the bill. These would include such things as preventing ionsurance companies from denying you coverage for preexisting conditions, etc.
But, paradoxically, these reforms are also the most popular elements of the bill as it now stands. Even Joe Lieberman and a large number of Republicans support these reforms.
So, why would you go to reconciliation if it means stripping thee elements from the bill? I'll explain why below the jump:
First, as Ezra Kline noted -- if you go to reconciliation, you are now forced to shift the expansion of coverage element of the plan into more of a public sector orientation. This means, basically, some form of the public option. So, that's much better from a reform standpoint. It also only requires 51 votes to pass, so losing some conservadems and Lieberman is not going to prevent its passage. (This is a product of the so-called Byrd Rule)
Second, because those other rreform elements I mentioned above the fold are so popular, you could package them in a seperate bill and it would be very difficult for even conservative Senators to filibuster the most popular health care reforms.
It would be a political problem of immense proportions if Senator Lieberman, etc, decided to filibuster these reforms. It would also serve as a rallying point for demoralized Democrats, who would see a much better health insurance reform bill passing via reconciliation as well.
I think this is a win/win politically and from a public policy standpoint. My concern is that the White House is so braindead on this, and so completely risk-averse and leadership deficient that they will not adopt this hardball strategy. In fact, they want to avoid reconciliation at all costs, primarily because they want to pivot to the economy by the time the President gives the State of the Union speech in January. Reconciliation would be hard work and time consuming. But, hey, who cares about good public policy when cynicalk politics is more important?
What do you all think?
ADDENDUM: Incidentally, I have been arguing for some time that President Obama has botched health care reform from the begining, and that this current mess is entirely his fault. The reconciliation scenario I just outlines was ALWAYS AVAILABLE! It was there from the beginning of this process.
The Republicans completely ouitmaneuvered the White House and Harry Reid when they deliberately gummed up the passage of the baucus bill and delayed it ad nauseum. This is the entire reason why they did it. To prevent reconciliation fropm taking place. The President could have and should have jammed this into reconciliation way back in May or June. He should have come down hardon baucus to pass a bill without any GOP support so we could get teh process moving.
But, he was duped intp delays and the promise of bi-partisanship, whcih never materialized. he was hoodwinked, and bamboozled. So, I lay this at his feet and the feet of Harry Reid.