As a resident of Nebraska, I know that there have been many voices raised in astonishment about Ben Nelson being part of the Democratic Party. In this diary I'd like to try to offer my fellow Kossacks some insight into why Ben Nelson is what he is. One caveat. Although I grew up here, I left for many years until the recession forced me back. Therefore, I've had to come up to speed on some of the history here. If there are other Nebraskans who think that my analysis/history is flawed, please weigh in! I'll glad update my diary. More below the fold.
First, a quick history of Ben Nelson's career in politics. Much has been made about Nelson's career in insurance before he entered politics. (He worked as assistant general counsel for Central National Insurance Group of Omaha, before become state insurance director in 1975, then went back to Central National Insurance as an executive vice president and eventually president.) This is how he made his personal fortune. However, it is his political fortunes in Nebraska that explain better to me why he is taking the stances that he is taking.
Ben Nelson became governor in 1990 and easily won re-election in 1994. In 1996 he ran for Senate and was defeated by Chuck Hagel. He left the governor's office in 1999 because he was term-limited out. (In Nebraska, governors can only serve for 8 years.) He tried again in 2000 for the Senate and was barely elected, garnering 50.99% of the vote. He ran for re-election in 2006 and trounced the Republican candidate, garnering an incredible 42% of Republican votes, as well as 73% of Independents and 96% of Democrats (link here). One reason that he did so very well in 2006 was the endorsement of Nebraska Right to Life, the major pro-life group in Nebraska, which has a lot of clout in Nebraska. This endorsement for a Democrat was a very big deal in Nebraska.
Next, since Nelson went from governor to Senator, let's take a look at that path in Nebraska. Since 1970, every governor that hasn't lost his bid for a second term has run for (and won) a Senate seat. One (Bob Kerry) left voluntarily after his first term, but won election to the Senate.
The current governor of Nebraska, Dave Heineman, was lieutenant governor of Nebraska when Mike Johanns was tagged to become Bush's Secretary of Agriculture. In 2006, he faced off against Tom Osborne in the Republican primary and narrowly won. This really shouldn't be understated. Tom Osborne is one of the most popular figures in Nebraska, having been an extremely winning UNL football coach (football being the main religion in Nebraska) and very popular Representative in the House. Dave Heineman is an extremely good politician. He will run in 2010 for a second term and crush any opposition. (So far the only one weighing in to run is the ex-mayor of Omaha, Mike Boyle).
After the 2010 election, Heineman will be term-limited out. And Ben Nelson is up for re-election in 2012. The odds of a Nelson/Heineman match up in 2012 are very, very high and are the reason for Ben Nelson's actions today.
Ben Nelson is trying very, very hard to keep his conservative credentials here in Nebraska. If (for example) he can't hold onto the Nebraska Right to Life endorsement, he is toast. Understand however, that he is probably going to be toast anyway. Republicans love Dave Heineman and Nelson has pretty much burned his bridges with the Democratic activist base here in Nebraska in order to keep that love. He is obviously banking on the "where else will they go" with Democratic voters in his extreme run to the right to try to cut off Heineman at the pass. I don't know a single Democrat who cares much about whether Nelson makes it or not. Even if Democratic voters turn out in 2012 for the Presidential race, I predict that a lot of them either leave the Senate vote blank, or write-in another candidate in protest.
The context of the probable Nelson/Heineman line up is necessary to understand the recent exchange between Nelson and Heineman over Medicaid. Heineman is trying to preempt the issue for Republican voters and Nelson is trying to prevent it.
Sadly, I don't say any way forward with Nelson. Nelson flat-out doesn't care what Obama or fellow Senators think about him holding up health care. It's not so much that he is thinking about his buddies in the insurance industry as he is trying to preempt anything that will give Heineman fuel in 2012. Of course, helping his insurance buddies will get him donations in 2012 when he will really need it, so opposing health care reform is an overall winning strategy for him. Right now, Nelson will oppose anything he deems necessary to win in 2012.
Don't get me wrong. I think this is going to backfire on Nelson in 2012. However, if he supports health care reform measures, he'll potentially be in a worse spot in 2012.
The only hope that I can see is either reconciliation or the nuclear option. Nelson just isn't going to agree to anything that will pass in the House or not cause a riot from Labor. I really don't see a way forward with the 60 vote margin as long as Nelson is one of those 60 votes. Possibly they can do it with Snowe, but I doubt that anything that both Snowe and Lieberman will find agreeable will be acceptable to Progressives, the House and Labor. I honestly think that they just need to factor Ben Nelson out of the equation entirely. However, even if they do, I'm not sure that anything that Snowe/Lieberman will agree to will pass muster in the House.