Ready for a little pre-Christmas punditry? I certainly am.
First off: It will take an extraordinarily bad turn of events to keep President Obama from re-election. Simply put, it is exceedingly difficult to defeat a sitting President.
First, the challenger has to be a political superhero of the Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton sort.
Second, you've got to have the right environment: things have to be awful.
Third, the incumbent has to be inept and/or feckless at politics.
Never forget Harry Truman entered his re-election campaign at 36% approval, having just integrated the military dividing his own party, an economy in turmoil,and no experience running a national campaign. His come from behind victory is the stuff of legend. Truman's deft use of the powers of his office illustrated clearly that a President is hard to beat even in the worst of times. Without question, a President can drive a campaign like nobody else.
So this is written with the basic premise than President Obama will be re-elected, unless he's hit with three developments:
- The President faces an opponent of superior quality and ability. More on this shortly.
- The President has been feckless and the country hates the job he's doing. This is indeed a possibility, but I'm not thinking its likely.
- President Obama's campaign abilities disappear. (chuckle). Riiiiiight.
So, on to the punditry.
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney didn't have the chops to win the Republican nomination having prepared for his campaign for years. He literally spent his fortune in Iowa only to see himself defeated with ease by upstart Mike Huckabee. Now, Mitt Romney has seen some tough campaigns, notably giving a tough challenge to the legendary campaigner Ted Kennedy. Of course, a strong challenge to Kennedy meant losing by 18 points. Despite his backing by the Bush Family circle, he's gonna have a tough time winning the nomination and has no chance to beat President Obama. I was actually looking forward to this matchup last year because I knew Obama would run circles around Romney. Turns out even lesser politicians did it for me in the Republican Primary.
- Evangelicals don't trust him.
- Teabaggers definitely don't trust him.
- He can't expand the playing field.
- No moxie.
If Mitt Romney can clear the GOP primary, which is questionable considering his weakness in 2008, i'd be surprised. I think President Obama insulted him best when he said Romney spent half his personal fortune only to lose Iowa by 10 points. On the plus side, he does have the strong support of the prosperous Mormon community.
Tim Pawlenty
"T-Paw" has got some media buzz out there, but I'm seeing no grassroots action. Pawlenty is the profile of a candidate in search of a base. To run for President, you need a base. You gotta have a well you can draw from time and time again. People who will stick with you through thick and thin. With Bill Clinton, it was the Southern White working class and poor Blacks. With George Bush, evangelical conservatives. With Barack Obama, middle class Blacks. Pawlenty hasn't got one, despite his professed love for people who shop at Wal-Mart. Methinks most folks don't form their political identity around shopping. Maybe one day he'll get that. He's also been a completely ineffective party leader in Minnesota, having never won a majority and overseen declines in Republican office holders across the state, including losing the legislature.
- Unpersuasive campaigner. Deadly problem vs. Obama.
- Dumb.
- Largely milquetoast governorship. No signature achievements.
- No conservative street cred.
I don't see Pawlenty forming any real challenge whatsoever. He's soft.
Sarah Palin
I don't think Palin wants to run, but she could be forced into it due to the impotence of the other Republican options. Simply put, her nomination would absolutely ensure Obama will be re-elected with ease. She would start with a strong base of support among the nutcase fringe and evangelical Republican base. They trust her. Nothing in the media will change this view..because hey, she had mad babies. Thats enough for them. She is, however, a good campaigner and that's always a plus.
- Can't expand the map. Puts nothing in play.
- Weak, easily punctured record.
- Ignorant.
- High negatives.
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Heavy baggage. Baggage claim terminal.
Mike Huckabee
Huck has a good campaign style and a quick wit. He's got an ability to connect to lower middle class voters, and strikingly, black voters. Black voters like his mix of populism and Christianity, which helped him win damn near half the vote in Arkansas. But lets be real: there is no way he's taking the Black vote from Barack Obama. He's got a quick wit and that homespun political style that always goes over well with American voters. So, with this being said, Huckabee looks to me like the strongest challenger to the President.
- Bad optics. No "presidential" style about him.
- Ineffective at counterattack.
- Organizational abilities negligible.
- No corporate or institutional support.
Now, for the dark horses:
John Thune
As we get into the dark horses, Thune's name has been bandied about Washington. Methinks this is what I call 'Evan Bayh Syndrome.' Find yourself a tall, square-jawed Senator with toothy smile and always talk about him as President. Like Bayh, I don't think Thune makes a run. Mainly because he seems smart enough to know he can't win. Thune could be a more attractive candidate in 2016, but right now he will probably accept the buzz but decline to run.
- Too close to Bush. Need some time for the memory of Bush to disappear.
- Can't expand the map.
- Lackluster and boring campaigner.
- Can't run against Washington.
Mike Pence
Pence has a good profile and could emerge as a real champion who could unite the teabaggers and the evangelicals. Being from Indiana, he definitely expands the Republican map into states where Obama made gains. While not particularly smart, he is a political natural. He carefully choosing his words and has good optics. Only one sitting Congressman has ever been elected President, James Garfield. However, Garfield was a General and civil war hero. He was also shot six months into office. Don't know if that means anything. I think he takes a pass and looks for a stronger springboard like Governor or Senator.
- Tough getting around the experience question.
- National campaign could damage prospects for Senate or Governor's seat.
Bobby Jindal
Jindal is smart and capable. He's got bad optics and needs to gain some weight, but otherwise he's got a future in politics. I'm not sure he has a large enough base, however. I wouldn't count evangelicals among them. He was raised Hindu, and didn't become a born again, but a Catholic. The Indian-American community, which I'm sure is rightfully proud of him, is strongly Democratic and will likely remain so. I think he bides his time.
- Not ready for primetime. Bad optics.
- Too young. Will only be 41 in 2012.
Haley Barbour
Barbour may be nearing the end of his career, so he may be inclined to go for it. Just for the fun of it. He's been a popular Governor and is a skilled Washington operative. If he put together a campaign, it would likely be very well run. Ultimately, I don't think he runs. He's got a comfortable retirement ahead of him.
- Mad skeletons in closet.
- Can't run against Washington.
- Bad optics.
A few old-hat retreads also come up in the news:
Jeb Bush. Poor Jeb's last name has him beat. That name wont be back in national politics for another 20 years.
Newt Gingrich. Yeah right.
Rick Santorum. If Palin isn't enough crazy for the nutcase fringe, he may pick up steam. No chance of winning.
Dick Cheney. In my wildest dreams, it would be Obama vs. Cheney.