(Yesterday's numbers in parenthesis)
Viability line: 46.9
Dean: 100.0 (100.0)
Clark: 64.5 (64.4)
Kerry: 36.8 (35.6)
Gephardt: 34.3 (34.8)
Edwards: 32.1 (28.9)
Lieberman: 26.2 (25.0)
Sharpton: 11.5 (10.9)
Kucinich: 7.4 (7.8)
New info: The three tracking polls, CNN/Time national poll, SUSA IA poll, media results for 1/16
Unlike nearly every other day this week, very little happened in the ECC between yesterday and today. This is at least somehwat due to the typical weekend news lull.
Less than 48 hours until the ECC makes it projections. Unless something wild happens, only Dean and Clark will be projected as viable all the way until Super Tuesday. Also, unless something strange happens, Dean will be projected to win the nomination on Super Tuesday.
Now, some people are convinced that a win by Edwards or Kerry in Iowa or NH will instantly make them as viable as the frontrunners, dean and Clark.However, I do not subscribe to this theory.
- -Both candidates have very weak support in post-NH states. Outside of SC, where Edwards is third (and Kerry is seventh), it has been three months since either candidate has registered even close to either the frontrunners or to 15% in any poll of any non-home state that follows NH.
- -One week's worth of postive news will not significantly alter both Kerry and Edwards's massive fundraising, volunteer and post-NH deficits.
- -Post-IA momentum will be especially usuless this year. With a tight four way battle, in all likelihood the winner of the caucus will not be known until mignight or 1:00 am EST, at the earliest. Tuesday morning papers will not be able to report a winner, instead simply declaring the race "too close to call." This happened to Gephardt and Simon in 1988, and Gephardt's victory led to very little momentum and further victories only in Missouri and SD.
This time, however, it will be even worse. Come Tuesday evening and all of Wednesday, the state of the union will dominate the news cycle. By Thursday, will we already be into previews of the New Hampshire primary. Big Mo will be very hard for anyone to claim.
4-This primary season is extremely frontloaded, with 29 states holding parimaries or caucuses between 2/3 and 3/2. 29 days, 29 states. This will result in a shortened positive news cycle for the winner of either IA or NH--much shorter than ever before. New victories will be reported almost every single day. Unless somehow the overhwelming support in later states for Dean, and to a somewhat lesser extent Clark, is extremely soft, completely impervious to the massive ads buys and volunteer armies those two will be able to put up, and is instead affected only by five days of news coverage, IA and NH victories by anyone not named Dean or Clark won't get them very far.
Big Mo is dead. Hell, Carter was the only person who ever actually used it to claim victory, and he won both IA and NH in a very drawn out primary format. That possibility simply isn't open to anyone this year.
That's my theory, and unless something proves me wrong this year, I'm stickn' to it.