Let me correct that; the UnIslamic NonRepublic of Iran is still dying as it has been since its unmasking in June.
And yes, that government is no more Islamic than it is a republic. It is a hard-line military dictatorship. It exists outside of the times and is dying a slow death with each passing cry of "Allahu Akbar" and "Marg Bar Dic-tator".
The death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and then Sunday's murder of Sayid Ali Mousavi, nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, seem predestined by fitting in almost perfectly with the traditions of holy Ashura that has fallen upon this land of beauty ruled by thugs. Read FrankCornish's diary for context on all of this.
The streets were fought over and the law lost.
Meir Javedanf of The Tehran Bureau has an excellent analysis of today. So does Scott Lucas of Enduring America. Finally, here's an analysis by Jon Leyne of the BBC. They pretty much arrive at the same conclusion; Sunday was a bloody day and a major victory for the opposition, even if many felt the closed hand of this dictatorship.
This regime is weaker now than it was during the summer. Much weaker. It's going to only get weaker as time wears down this out-dated and misplaced regime. How many fundamentalists can truly approve of the regime's behavior during times of mourning? How many pragmatists in the government can truly believe the wisdom in Mir Hossein Mousavi's nephew being murdered on the streets and raised to the revered status of a martyr on a bloody and holy Sunday meant to commemorate the martyrs of days long past? Some of Sullivan's readers offer further insight on the significance of Ali Mousavi's death.
There also seems to be an evolution in the demonstrations. As Andrew Sullivan noted there was a "seizing" of "the instruments of control". I would say it was a targeting of the tools of the regime. The vehicles and equipment of security forces were targeted along with police and militia stations. Protesters appeared to be "arresting" some of the paramilitary forces. Here's one incident involving an old man making what appears to be a citizen's arrest of a gun-toting thug. Here's another incident, which also appears to have the additional motive of freeing arrested protesters. Other members of the security forces appeared to join protesters, as seen in this awesome video. Numerous reports of police refusing orders to fire. There have also been multiple reports of demonstrators protesting at the sites of state-controlled broadcasters.
Below, cornered security forces ask for forgiveness as a woman accuses them of being "Yazid's forces", referencing the history of Ashura. It is important to note how many comparisons are being made between this moment and the history of Ashura: the new chant of "Yo Hossein, Mir Hossein!", the comparison of Tehran to Karbala, of Khamanei to Yazid or the Shah. The green movement is taking ownership of the Iranian culture.
Another woman later in the clip apparently refers to the cornered security forces as cowards and "a piece of shit".
Ask yourself; do the thugs look like they can outlast the demonstrators? I'm a bit doubtful. The regime was clearly not in control on this bloody Sunday. What "progress" has the regime made in six months in regaining control and legitimacy?
One of Andrew Sullivan's readers offers some important context:
I think one way to explain the regime's brutality is by looking at the calendar. There are two important national holidays coming up, the first one is "Arba'ain" it is the 40 day anniversary of third Shia imam (who died in "Ashura" which was today), this will be also the 40 day anniversary of everyone killed today (I think it will be Feb. 5th). The second one is 11th Feb. the anniversary of Iranian 1979 revolution which is a national holiday accompanied by mass rallies.
I am thinking they are trying to preempt protests during those days by being excessively brutal today. Also bear in mind that in March Ahmadinejad's government is set to end several of its subsidies. Most importantly gasoline quotas will be eliminated and everyone has to buy at the non-subsidized price of 0.6$ per liter. Two and half years ago when they introduced rationing and quotas there were protests and gasoline stations were set on fire, imagine what might happen this time.
Rumors of the Green Movement's demise were greatly exaggerated, just as surely some thought in 1978 or 1979 that the Shah might prevail. This regime is crumbling before our eyes, and its falling debris will crush some unfortunate but very brave few. May they find a place in your hearts and may we never forget Iran's Bloody Sunday.
Pray and hope for the well-being of these Iranian democrats. Oh, and proxies are useful..
Update 12/28/09:
Truly UnIslamic. The Mousavi family says the body of Seyed Ali Mousavi was taken from the hospital to prevent his funeral from becoming a rallying cry.(BBC) In addition, more arrests are being reported- meaning those prison guards better behave this time and not rape any of the detainees.