Ehud Barak, the leader of Israel's left-wing Avodah or Labor party today forced Bibi Netanyahu, the leader of Israel's right-wing Likud party to take a giant leap to the left. While the coalition agreement has yet to be signed, below I will explore the coalition deal, some of the consequences of the deal and some of its possibly unintended consequences.
The coalition pact with Labor consists ofthree main parts.
1. The coalition will respect previous Labor concessions. Most notably, the coalition platform will include Labor's past agreement to a two-state solution. This means that, at least conceivably, Netanyahu will be trying to agree to a two state solution with the Palestinians. It might not have the borders that Tzipi or Ehud would have wanted--but elections do have consequences. Also notable, the government will restrict some settlements and dismantle others. However, I have absolutely no doubt that nothing in the coalition guidelines will prevent Netanyahu from building up the E1 corridor or providing for additional houses in existing settlements for family members (or so-called "natural growth"). Finally, Netanyahu (who is probably the furthest-to-the-right politician in Israel in terms of economic policy is making very significant concessions to the Histadrut/labor union types). Too much focus on this board is on the situation with the Palestinians and not enough on Israel's internal left-right divide and religious/secular divide. By choosing Labor as a coalition partner, it also moves Israel to the left on economic issues and religious secular issues.
- Labor will get an establishment of riches in terms of governing responsibilities. Make no mistake about it, Labor is getting a sweet, sweet deal in exchange for joining the coalition. Labor will receive the defense ministry, the trade ministry, and a collection of more minor ministries and deputy ministries. Compared to Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor is being "far overpaid" for their contribution to the government. It isn't all one-sided. Many (including myself) think that Bibi has wanted Ehud as defense minister from Day 1.
- Labor will have input on all major diplomatic and internal security decisions and the right to vote their conscience on certain issues like Avidgor's loyalty oath.
There are three main consequences/unintended consequences of this.
- Netanyahu shows again that he'd rather govern from the center than from the right. Labor will make his coalition sufficiently fragile that he's not going to easily be able to move to the right. By including Labor, the far-right National Union party will be excluded from the government. The National Union makes Avigdor Liberman look like Noam Chomsky. This ain't a bad thing for liberals. In addition, it gives Netanyahu more flexibility to stiff the UTJ on the issue of conversions (which is an absolutely enormous issue).
- Netanyahu's really going to have internal problems. First, he's essentially giving the heisman to his chief rival Silvan Shalom. Shalom's going to try to oust Netanyahu at the first chance he can get. Second, by giving anyway so many ministries to Labor, there will be fewer ministries for his own party-members. MKs like running ministries for obvious reasons (it allows them to move up from back-benchers to lead folks, collect patronage and favors, etc.) Because Netanyahu promised a very prominent role to Druze Arab Ayoub Kara, it means there will be almost no spoils left to divide for Jewish Likud members. Finally, a move to the left won't be welcomed by the far right in his party.
- The Netanyahu government will get along better with the Obama government. This one goes without saying, but the Obama government probably wouldn't be particularly thrilled with Netanyahu saying "we hereby disclaim anything Israel's ever agreed to before". In addition, it sets a bad precedent in terms of the Palestinians, Syrians, etc.
Conclusion
In conclusion, all American liberals should applaud the addition of the left-wing Labor party to the governing coalition, the control by Labor of important ministries like Defense and Trade, and the leftward shift of the government's platform, especially as it relates to a two-state solution, the limiting of some settlements, and the respect of past agreements.
UPDATE!!
Labor's Central Committee voted to join the coalition. Hooray!