An observation in this article introduces yet one more variable in the Arctic Ice equation, and for the creatures that live there.
In the past, Arctic waters have been dominated by thick slabs of sea ice that last from one year to the next. But sea-ice cover is diminishing and thick ice that lasts for several years is disappearing fast, with researchers seeing a greater proportion of thin, newly formed ice.
..
But now the Arctic has larger areas of open water, and more waves. "As soon as you introduce swell, you get an entirely different form of ice," says Jeremy Wilkinson of the Scottish Association for Marine Science in Oban, UK. Under these conditions, globs of ice crystals tossed about in the water combine to form first a soupy mixture called 'grease ice', and then 'pancakes' of thin ice a metre or two in diameter.
Scientists are unsure if these darker ice formations may result in a lower albedo [reflectivity], creating a synergistic 'knock on effect' to accelerate ice breaking up.
Perhaps one of the more prescient observations is this quote: "Young ice isn't that well studied because there didn't used to be that much of it".
The article goes on to describe attempts at simulating the Arctic environment, to see if these new ice formations will tend to reinforce a positive feedback loop for warming of the local environment.
Meanwhile, the eruption of Mount Redoubt may tend to offset some effect of insolation on the 'Pancake Ice'. The volcanic ash tends to have both effects - it darkens snow cover, allowing it to absorb more solar energy as well as block insolation.
It's unclear as to how widespread this volcanic eruption will affect this years weather cycles, and how far away it will be noticed - typically volcanoes tend to 'disrupt' weather cycles and make them even less predictable, something which has already been increasingly so in the Arctic for the last few decades.
More variables to look forward to, and yet .. the overall quantity of ice in the Arctic is still decreasing.
I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.
Additional information:
Pancake ice may sound yummy, but it is a serious threat to the survival of polar bears and perhaps other wildlife as well.
http://www.ngo.grida.no/...
http://books.google.com/...