Oregon Democrats currently hold 60% of seats in both the state senate and state house, with 18/30 and 36/60, respectively. One might be reasonable in thinking that, since Oregon was recently something of a swing state, this might be as far as Democrats can get in Oregon. One would be wrong.
Every seat Democrats currently hold in the state legislature has more registered Democrats than Republicans. There are an additional three seats in each house where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, and all are up in 2010, meaning if Democrats only take and hold only those seats with Democratic registration advantages, they would hold 70% of the state senate, and 65% of the state house.
State Senate
Much has changed since 2006, the last time these seats were up for election. Two out of three had more Republicans than Democrats at that time, but no longer. We should probably thank Barack Obama and his volunteers for that. Each of these districts has seen the Democratic-Republican margin move by about 5,000-7,000 voters since 2006.
District 10
Jackie Winters holds this Salem-area district, and I’ve heard it is likely she will retire in 2010. In 2006 she faced Paul Evans, the former mayor of Monmouth, professor at Western Oregon University, and a veteran of Afghanistan and I believe Iraq as well, but Evans lost 21,232 to 24,641, or by about 3,400 votes. Since then, Evans considered a run against Gordon Smith in 2008, a run for the 5th CD in 2008, and I’ve heard is gunning for something pretty big for 2010, so another run for the 10th may not be in the cards, but we’ll see.
In 2006, Jackie Winters' district had about 23,500 Democrats and 28,300 Republicans.
Today, Jackie Winters' district has nearly 28,400 Democrats and 27,800 Republicans.
That’s about 4,900 more Democrats and 500 fewer Republicans. If those voters can be turned out, even if Jackie Winters runs again next year she could be turned out by a strong candidate like Paul Evans. But the registration advantage is very narrow, and this is probably our least likely prospect of the three, because of that.
District 15
Bruce Starr holds this district including parts of western Washington County, including the county seat of Hillsboro and the city of Cornelius. Starr has recently gotten some press because of a stupid move by his part to sponsor a bill that would ban pit bulls in Oregon, force current owners to get licenses for them, and if they fail, could euthanize the dogs, IIRC. The response has been nearly uniformly bad for the prospect.
Starr might be counted as the only Washington County Republican state legislator, whereas a couple decades ago Washington County was a Republican stronghold. In 2006 he faced Democrat John Napolitano, and I don’t know much about the race, but Starr won 19,973-16,308. In 2006, we also picked up the 30th state house district with David Edwards, which is half of the senate district, so now both of the state house districts are ours.
In 2006, Bruce Starr's district had about 20,500 Democrats and 21,400 Republicans.
Today, Bruce Starr's district has nearly 26,325 Democrats and 21,050 Republicans.
As well, David Edwards’ house district went from having 11,650 Democrats and 12,750 Republicans to today having 15,400 Democrats and 12,275 Republicans, so it's much safer now. It had been the more Republican of the two house districts, but looks fairly comfortable for a Democrat now.
I have a hard time believing that Starr can survive this year, if he decides to run.
District 8
Frank Morse holds this Corvallis-Albany district. While Morse won a towering victory over Mario Magana in 2006, 27,127-18,767, this might be the Democrats’ best opportunity to try to mount a strong challenge, if we can get a good candidate.
In 2006, Frank Morse's district had about 25,625 Democrats and 23,800 Republicans.
Today, Frank Morse's district has nearly 32,475 Democrats and 23,325 Republicans.
Yes, you read that right. That makes this one of the more Democratic state senate districts, period. It’s about as blue as the 16th district, on the North Coast, IIRC. Don't get me wrong, Morse looks very strong, and he may be very tough to beat, but a roughly 3-2 advantage in registration should help us a lot. And if Senator Morse takes a look at hsoe numbers, he may well decide not to run again.
Right now I’m having trouble accessing the secretary of state’s voter registration records, which is why I haven’t used exact numbers, and why I’ll put off covering the state house for now. I’ll get to it as soon as I've got the time.