I've spent the past couple days looking at various redistricting diaries and seeing where we might be looking at new plurality or VRA protected minority majority districts. The consensus seems to be that we will see a new one in the DFW Metroplex, possibly another in Houston's Harris County, and possibly a second VRA opportunity seat in South Carolina. Though I don't discuss it, there is also some chance at another VRA seat in Arizona, though I think its less likely with Arizona already having two VRA hispanic districts (the 4th and 7th). The most remote possibility is a different TX-34, which would be an Austin to San Antonio creature (I'm told this was entertained in the past). Anyways, commentary is welcomed.
- Texas's "33rd" CD (Dallas-Ft. Worth)
Chance We'll See It: 98%
This is by far the biggest slam dunk opportunity for a new minority majority district, as the Metroplex currently only has a single VRA protected district, TX-30, which is plurality black (41+%) with a large Hispanic component (34.8%). In the 2003 DeLay gerrymander, Republicans masterfully packed as many minority voters as they could into the 30th and cracked the rest between the remaining districts-with the largest share ending up in Pete Sessions' 32nd (a district which is getting less and less Republican by the day). There is some disagreement as to what form the new district will take; there are two schools of thought:
a)a Fort Worth based seat that pulls the most Hispanic portions of the 32nd, 30th, and 24th Districts together in a Hispanic plurality or majority district.
b)a "coalition" Tarrant/Dallas majority-minority district pulling from the same three districts designed in much the same manner as the old 24th District that sent a white guy (Martin Frost) to Congress
Either way (unless they're totally insane), Texas Republicans are going to have to give up the new Dallas seats unless they want to kiss Kenny Marchant and Pete Sessions goodbye by 2012-2014. They're better off down the line shoring up the 24th and 32nd then they are to try and have their cake and eat it too.
- Texas's "34th" Congressional District (Houston)
Chance We'll See It: 50%
Texas Republicans have a bit more leeway in Houston then they do in the Metroplex. They did not overextend themselves nearly as badly, but the long term demographics and political calculus makes it dicey to gamble around with, as the 7th, 10th, and 22nd are trending away from them, though not nearly as quickly as the 32nd and 24th. The chance that we get this one is directly linked, in my opinion, to whether Democrats capture the Texas House. If the do, they can probably string together a plurality Hispanic district from pieces of the various districts while at the same time drawing Gene Green a district in which he is less vulnerable to a primary from a Latino candidate. Once again, there are apparently two ways of going about it described here as:
Harris County. The only possible hope for a new Dem seat in Harris County will be one of two ways. The likeliest will be to construct something that takes the southern leg of Culberson's CD7, some of the more multicultural parts that border it in Al Green's CD9, and then move on up Highway 290, possibly picking up some parts of the Heights if possible. All that work to get something that might be a 55-45 Dem seat. The second way - more challenging in my mind - is to draw a new Hispanic opportunity seat on the East Side. That would require about as much gerrymandering as it took to create the 29th, so I think this has to be a low probability unless the GOP just wants to prevent another moderate Dem type from moving to DC.
I read the first as a coalition district with a heavy or plurality Hispanic component while the second would be something that only becomes likely if Texas Dems take the House and there's a 2-2 split of the 4 new Congressional Districts.
If not, Texas Republicans may or may not have the leeway to draw something like a 57-43 GOP seat that would run away from them at the start-its an open question whether they could pull this off. They'd have to pack the 29th even more with Latino voters on Houston's east side, and its also an open question of whether the 29th is a VRA protected seat, since it sends a white guy to Congress. Bottom line is that Houston is a far more muddled situation than the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex.
- South Carolina's "7th" Congressional District:
Chance We'll See It: 30%
South Carolina will be gaining a 7th Congressional District, and with a nearly 30% African American population, theoretically they would get two seats...barely. This one is dependent on whether the Justice Department makes the state draw a second VRA opportunity district.
My best guess is that if such a creature were to be created, the most logical thing to do would be to put the Sumter-Marion-Florence part of the 6th into the 5th and shed the most white portions of that district into the 2nd and 3rd. The other way of doing it, if Spratt retired or lost would be to shift the 6th to a more northern direction and have the new 7th be Charleston/Berkeley based and pick up the African American portions of the 1st and 2nd.