Crossposted from
There are two sources of political power. The more obvious is incumbency. When you hold office, you hold the purse strings,can make appointments. Also pass bills and set policy.
The less obvious is the power of insurgency. When you are out of power, you get to sit back and criticize, watch for abuses of power, put your opponent on the defensive by exposing corruption. To do this effectively you must be aggressive and passionate. You need to have a cause that will unite your base, which might whither away without patronage.
The best situation of all is to be able to do both. As you are reforming the Government in your own vision, the past abuses of the previous Government come out. The more embarrassing the revelations, the more dispirited the opposition's base will be. They will be too busy defending the indefensible to launch any offensive against you. And you can use that breathing room to further your own agenda.
To do this effectively, the President needs to be above the fray. He cannot be seen as fanning the flames of outrage against the abuses of the previous government. In fact, he needs to be the one shielding them from the lynch mob, while his own base demands just punishment. Then he needs to let the law take its course. The shameful secrets of the past must get out drip by drip. Each day a new morsel must be released to be chewed up by the wolf pack. And each day the opposition must find itself defending something even more indefensible than the day before.
This is just what is happening to the GOP. You can see the desperation in their faces. Not all Republicans are cowardly sociopaths like Hannity or Cheney. They are honorable men and women who happen to believe in a different political philosophy. They do not want to defend criminal behavior any more than us.
The drip drip drip of daily scandalous revelations is the political equivalent of Chinese water torture. We can see their responses become more irrational, more desperate.
The softest target of all is Cheney. In this, as in everything else, he is acting as a coward. For a man with so many shameful secrets to hide, he has made a major blunder by asking for more memos to be released.
Cheney has a history of cowardice and cracking under pressure. He got five deferments from getting drafted into the army during Vietnam. Cheney could not rebuff criticism from the right wing for not invading Baghdad during the first Gulf war. While he was out of power, he seethed, scheming for a way to start another war against Iraq, to finish the job. His overreaction to 9/11 is the root of the whole torture policy. Now, he is cracking again.
Cheney's best strategy right now is to hire a good lawyer and keep his mouth shut. But he is too scared to do that. His overreaction is sucking all other Republicans into his own personal nightmare. He has enemies among the Bush administration alumni. Condoleeza Rice, no less culpable than Cheney, is sending her flacks out to defend her own record. Powell's former Chief of Staff is already on record pointing the finger at Cheney as the source of the torture program. Military men have a special contempt for Cheney, for getting them to do things that he would not himself.
This is the way the mafia was broken up. All organized criminal enterprises rely on the ability of its members to keep their mouths shut and their leadership to remain cool under pressure. When the leaders overreact and start to shoot at each other, the rank and file will start to blab.Their fear of the law exceeds their fear of bosses. As each one tries to save his skin, more and more crimes get revealed. The honorable members of the community to which the criminals belong will organize to expel the evil. That is what Rudy Giuliani did to the NY mafia. It was Republican Senator Howard Baker who asked "What did the President know, and when did he know it?" during the Watergate hearings. He was among those who advised Nixon to resign.
Keep them busy. Let every GOP member of Congress explain why water-boarding is not torture. Why we are any better than China in the treatment of prisoners. Destroy their spirit, their belief in themselves. The issues that animate them (abortion, border security, taxes) will get pushed out of the news. Even their own talking heads will be stuck talking of the past, mired in the minutiae of what happened back in May 2 2004.
It is the Republicans who can put an end to this. Who will be the Howard Baker of the Waterboarding scandal? Who will step up first to condemn torture and admit that the whole program was a grievous mistake? Sen. McCain, we are looking at you.
The danger here is that the issues that matter to us will get pushed out too. This is our last chance to get Universal Health Care while the baby boomers can still pay into the system. There are two wars going on, one of which can evolve into an existential threat to American civilization. The economy has collapsed and needs immediate attention.As this storm is rages, Obama needs to be focused on his reform agenda.
Carter had a similar chance after Watergate. But he was not able to make radical enough changes in Government. Reagan deftly used the small window of opportunity available to him. There were no major scandals from the previous administration to help him along though. Clinton got mired in minor controversies early on that slowed his momentum and never achieved the full potential of his considerable political skills.
Let that not happen. The trick is to use the torture scandal to pound the Republicans while at the same time getting our own agenda through. Do not let one distract us from the other. Obama must succeed or we are all in deep trouble.
Added Note Thanks for the Rec List!
Changed the title to reflect more accurately what I think will wreck the GOP.
For Those Clamoring For Prosecutions Now: Once prosecutions start (grand juries convene), the release of memos will have to stop. Much better to keep the revelations coming. Let the shameful secrets hidden away in Cheney's files become common knowledge. There are enough violations of law here that some people will go to jail. I don't believe Cheney, Rumsfeld or Rice will, but some of their aides will.In time. They are already starting to point fingers at each other.
If you are still impatient for prosecutions to start:
Remember what happened with Sen. Stevens. A prosecution that doesn't go exactly by the book will backfire. These guys will have the absolute best defense attorneys: Col. Oliver North and Sen. Stevens had the same guy. This is also why Congressional investigations are not the way to go. They generate a lot of publicity, but Congress cannot force testimony without offering immunity. That is how Oliver North got away.
What Obama is doing is just the right thing. Drip Drip the memos out. Let the DOJ make its own independent decision on what is a crime worth prosecution. Let the rest of us spread the outrage. And keep up the pressure.