For all political junkies out there, Campaign Diaries has just published the first part of its 2010 House ratings, devoted to GOP-held seats that could be competitive in 2010.
There are a total of 62 seats on the list. The quick take: 6 races are rated as toss-ups, 12 as lean retention and 44 as likely retention - all of it recapped in this graph.
Some noteworthy tidbits:
- Six races are rated as toss-ups: LA-02 (obviously), DE-AL, WA-08, IL-10, PA-06 and AK-AL.
- The first 5 of these districts were one by Kerry in 2004. Only one other Kerry district is still held by a Republican: PA-15, which is rated likely retention because Democrats are having some recruitment trouble They might want to focus on that race a little.
- The state that is the most represented are California, where 8 Republican incumbents suddenly find themselves endangered because Obama won their district. Three have already drawn a decent challenger - so 5 to go for Dems.
- Another seat with a large number of potentially competitive seats is Florida: To an open seat (FL-12) are added 6 vulnerable incumbents (starting with Young in FL-10).
Next year, Democrats will not be able to go on the offensive as much as they did in 2006 and in 2008; but they still have some solid opportunities.
Much will depend on recruitment, and it looks like Democrats have had already their fair share of successes (John Carney in Delaware, Charlie Justice in FL-10, Pougnet in CA-45, etc) but also of early disappointments (particularly in Michigan's 11th and Pennsylvania's 15th).
There are also many districts that Dems haven't had to think much about over the past few cycles but where there's work to be done - especially many California districts where endangered Republicans have no challenger, as well as districts in Virginia and Michigan where Obama's unexpectedly high score suggests that GOP incumbent could be vulnerable.
One big question, obviously, is how much defense Dems will be forced to play. That most vulnerable Democratic incumbents had little to worry about in 06 and 08 helped expand the map of GOP seats, though the playing field will probably not be as one-sided this year.