I have read a number of diaries now on the fate of the Republicans. Some are certain that the party is finished and that a new party will take its place. Others say it will reemerge the same monster that it ever was given enough time.
While I am not a political scientist, I have witnessed the Rise/Fall/Rise of a few political parties over the years and feel confident enough to make a prediction of the eventual fate of the Grand Old Party.
Let me just gaze into the old crystal ball....ah it's coming clear...follow me into the future...
In 2010 the Republicans will campaign as the party of NObama. They will fail spectacularly and will be lucky to maintain the status quo in Congress. Their numbers will drop across the board and some heads will start to roll. Look for the purge of moderates to accelerate. Michael Steele, if he hasn’t been already, will be tossed.
In 2012 the GOP will run an insane "What Were They Thinking?" slate for President/VP. Think Gingrich/Limbaugh. The candidate and his running mate will make Palin/Jindal seem like a lost opportunity at moderation. Their platform will be one that no one in their right minds would support.
Think of Mondale’s promise to "raise your taxes" in 1984.
They will go down in a screaming, blazing defeat that will be the subject of political science courses for the next 60 years. They will lose more seats in the House and lose more Senators in "safe" states. They will stagger from this loss and view a political landscape of rubble and shell shocked loyalists.
Then they will start rebuilding.
They will put a moderate in charge. They will remove the ideologues and the purists from positions of influence. They will tell the dogmatists and whack jobs in Congress to STFU. They will begin to shake the trees for moderate conservatives to put up for nomination and they will drop opposition to wedge issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and Universal Health Care.
In 2016 they will run a "red conservative" for President (that is someone who is NOT a Reagan Republican) along with a new field of moderates. They will enjoy their first significant come back since 2006. They will still lose the election and will fail to regain control of the either Houses of Congress, but they will have chipped into the Democrats control.
In 2020, they will have their first real chance to recapture the White House. By then, children being born today will be 11 years old and many will remember nothing of President Obama or the disaster that was the Bush Presidency. Reagan will be as significant as FDR was in 1976 (a fuzzy memory and a worthy President but utterly insignificant to most).
However, by then the Republican party will no longer resemble the GOP of today than the GOP of 1952 resembled the party of 1932.
That's just my guess. Worth sticking around to see if I'm right though.