For the first time, a national poll - the Washington Post/ABC poll - shows that supporters of gay marriage now outnumber opponents of gay marriage. 49 percent of Americans now support gay marriage, compared to 46 percent who oppose it.
Additionally, the poll showed that a majority of Americans - 53%, in fact - say that gay marriages legally recognized in another state should be recognized by their states.
And take this surprising bit of information:
The surprise is that the shift has occurred across ideological groups. While conservatives are least apt to favor gay marriage, they've gone from 10 percent support in 2004 to 19 percent in 2006 and 30 percent now -- overall a 20-point, threefold increase, alongside a 13-point gain among liberals and 14 points among moderates. (Politically, support for gay marriage has risen sharply among Democrats and independents alike, while far more slightly among Republicans.)
That's right - even 30 percent of CONSERVATIVES now support gay marriage.
Link to WaPo/ABC Poll
Other tidbits:
GAY MARRIAGE
Of all these issues, the divisions -- and changes -- on gay marriage are especially striking. In addition to more support, there's been a shift in intensity of views: Compared with three years ago, the number of Americans "strongly" opposed has declined from 51 percent to 39 percent, while the number strongly in favor of gay marriage has advanced from 24 percent to 31 percent.
Across the spectrum, 75 percent of secular Americans favor gay marriage, 55 percent strongly; so do 71 percent of liberal Democrats, 57 percent strongly; and 71 percent of all liberals, 54 percent strongly. Among all Democrats, 62 percent are in favor; among all Republicans, 74 percent are opposed.
The middle makes a significant difference: Fifty-four percent of moderates and 52 percent of independents now favor gay marriage, up from 38 and 44 percent, respectively, in 2006. But the single biggest shift has come among moderate and conservative Democrats: in 2006, just 30 percent in this group said gay marriage should be legal. Today it's 57 percent.
One other very pronounced difference is by age: Sixty-six percent of adults under age 30 support gay marriage. That drops to 48 percent of adults age 30 to 64 – and plummets to just 28 percent among senior citizens.
I hope that one day soon, my cousin who's been with his partner for at least 20 years can get married. Luckily for him, he lives in New York, which should legalize gay marriage soon.
MEDICAL MARIJUANA
On an entirely different issue, 46 percent of Americans now favor legalizing small amounts of marijuana for personal use, the most in data back to the mid-1980s and more than double its level 12 years ago. While 52 percent remain opposed, that's down from 75 percent in the late 1990s and 78 percent in 1986.
The biggest changes in the past two decades are 29- and 27-point advances in support of legalization among Democrats and independents, to 49 and 53 percent, respectively. The slightest: a 10-point gain among Republicans, to just 28 percent support.
While I personally oppose the use of marijuana, I do support its decriminalization, and hope to see it classified in the same group as alcohol and tobacco, and regulated as such.
IMMIGRATION
In another new high, 61 percent now support giving illegal immigrants "the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements." That's up from 49 percent in 2007 to a substantial majority for the first time. In this case support is up more sharply among Republicans, a 17-point gain to 59 percent, than among Democrats, up 9 points to 68 percent. It's up 14 points among independents.
One wonders if the business conservatives have had an impact on Republicans in general on the illegals issue.
GLOBAL WARMING
And on global warming, a new question finds 75 percent support for federal controls on the release of greenhouse gases in an effort to reduce global warming; indeed a substantial 54 percent support it "strongly." The Environmental Protection Agency moved in this direction this month, declaring these emissions a threat.
Global warming deniers are truly a fringe element now in American society. I'm very encouraged by this poll.