Hot on the heels of recent census data showing that a majority of Latino children in the United States are now born to immigrants, skilled analyzer Nate Silver offers some insight on what the country's electoral map could look like if Republicans start to lose more of the Latino vote.
In a blog post titled "Operation Gringo: Can the Republicans Sacrifice the Hispanic Vote and Win the White House?" (aw, no gabacho?) Silver presents what could be the eventual future of the GOP in the next decade or two if the party continues to lose the Latino vote in a variety of states:
This is the sort of electoral future the GOP might have to contemplate if they start losing the Hispanic vote by margins of 3:1, 4:1 or more. Giving up on New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado is a feasible, and perhaps even wise, strategy. But if they don't thread the needle just perfectly, and they make it difficult for themselves to win back Florida, while putting Arizona and perhaps even Texas increasingly into play, their task will become nearly impossible.
If such scenarios were to happen, the new wave of "second generation" Latinos who are born to at least one parent who was not born in the United State could also very well end up being the nail in the proverbial coffin for the Republican party, changing the country's political landscape for decades to come.
It's no secret that the youth demographic favors Democrats, so its not so crazy to think that these kids—who are predominantly citizens, or eligible for citizenship after being born in the United States—could be a significant boon, especially for Southern and Prairie states where the Latino population grew the fastest according to census reports.
Of course many Latinos will accurately state that the group's national vote is not in any way guaranteed to the Democratic Party at this point. Obama has sent a message with the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor, who will likely be the first person of Latino heritage to sit on the Supreme Court. (Sorry folks, a little Portuguese in Benjamin N. Cardozo doesn't equal being Latino in my book.)
Then there's also the issue of immigration reform. Polls have shown time and time again that immigration is an important issue to the Latino community, more so than for whites. If the Obama administration keeps its promise to bring forth comprehensive immigration reform that would offer paths to citizenship for millions of immigrants living in the United States—and if, subsequently, the Democratic party became known as the party for immigrants and Latinos—it could very well be an end game for the GOP. Keep in mind, the "second generation" Latinos coming up in the United States won't forget how their parents and families were helped by reform.
And the Republicans aren't doing themselves any favors by opposing immigration reform and supporting racist ideologues like Tom Tancredo and Glen Beck, whose paranoid vitriol of what they see as a Latino "invasion" could actually end up coming true in a way, at the ballot box.
(Cross-posted at Gabacha.)