Sometimes, when circumstances look bleakest, unusual opportunities present themselves that can be real game changers. These next 10 days present just such an opportunity for the Republican party. By embracing marriage equality now, in the debate taking place in the New York State Senate, the GOP can seize a unique opportunity to break out of its box as the permanent minority party for angry, older, white, Southern voters.
It is taken for granted that the GOP will always oppose marriage equality, driven by the deeply homophobic attitudes of the evangelical base of the party. This is not to say that all Republicans are homophobic. The more libertarian “small government” wing of the party (what I call traditional or “classical” Republicans) is beginning to shift in its views in line with the rest of America. One of the most striking examples of this transformation is Bob Barr, the former Republican Congressman from Georgia. Barr authored the Defense of Marriage Act (“DOMA”), responding to the perceived threat, in the mid-1990’s, of same-sex marriage being forced upon unwilling states. More recently, he was the Libertarian party candidate for President in 2008 and has now called for DOMA’s repeal on the grounds that it is an unwarranted intrusion in state prerogatives, to enact marriage laws as they see fit, and represents a federalized lowest common denominator. (Yeah, I was as shocked as anyone when I read about this!)
It is about "Family Values":
There is a clear civil rights issue underlying the struggle for marriage equality, one of equal protection and combating discrimination, and that has been the main focus of the LGBT community. But there is also an issue of common sense social policy that is inherently conservative. Shouldn’t government encourage monogamy, faithfulness, and stable family structures? There are manifest, and easily documentable social and economic benefits to marriage equality, and to building strong families and encouraging greater personal responsibility. Young Republicans, like Meghan McCain and Steve Schmidt, are keen supporters of marriage equality and easily grasp the inherently conservative pro-family argument behind it.
And yet Steve Schmidt and Meghan McCain are lonely voices, not so much because their views are out of line with mainstream America, but because they are young, optimistic voices in an angry, demoralized party of elders. The only bright spot for the GOP, among younger voters, comes out of its Ron Paul libertarian wing, which showed considerable energy and fund raising ability during last year’s election campaign. Otherwise, Republicans are increasingly confined demographically, relegating themselves to permanent minority status in a changing America. They have become regionally focused in the South, socially focused among evangelicals and other religiously conservative voters, and demographically focused on older white voters. Younger, socially tolerant voters are put off by the politics of angry rants and thinly disguised (sometimes undisguised) bigotry towards minorities, including gays and lesbians. It was these younger voters who came out in droves in 2008 and tilted such reliable Republican states like Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina into the Democratic column. Currently, the GOP is left without a single Congressional representative from New England.
At first blush, it would appear that the GOP has no reason to moderate its stand on LGBT issues, particularly on marriage equality. Why would the GOP willingly inflame its base of older, white, religiously conservative voters (the one’s we saw on display at last fall’s party convention)? The problem is that the base is no longer the majority. The GOP’s weak record on civil rights has permanently alienated African-Americans, the attacks on President Obama as some sort of alien interloper are not helping. The subverting of immigration reform, and the open nativist sentiment expressed by the party has put off droves of Hispanic voters, who are the nation’s fastest growing demographic. The bizarre attacks on Justice Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court only compound this error.
Just before the dawn:
Like many groups, LGBT voters, broke overwhelmingly for the Democrats last fall. The LGBT community gave substantial amounts of money to the Obama campaign, and to the Democratic party in general. Obama, in particular, took aggressive policy positions on most key LGBT civil rights issues, including a full repeal of DOMA (though not complete support of marriage equality). Later it would emerge that candidate Obama had in fact previously endorsed marriage equality, in 1996, in an interview as while running as a candidate for the Illinois State Senate. Many LGBT voters (myself included) assumed that the tack back to support for “separate-but-equal” civil unions, and a repeal of DOMA was merely tactical. Now, we cannot be so sure.
Stung by Proposition 8, and its hateful stripping of existing marriage rights in California, the LGBT community has been enormously radicalized since last November. Most (including me) have looked to the election of Obama as a symbol of hope and have sought reassurance that the new administration would be on the side of justice. The signs have not been promising. Obama has badly fumbled, repeatedly, and has needlessly antagonized the LGBT community and its supporters. The choice of Rick Warren, the openly homophobic evangelical preacher was stupid. It is doubtful many Rick Warren’s followers would ever vote for Obama. The repeated refusal to take action to repeal Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (DADT) is cowardly, especially when three quarters of public opinion backs a repeal of DADT. Last friday’s action, to defend DOMA and in the process of doing so equate same sex marriages with incest and pedophilia, is beneath contempt.
Things are equally bleak for the LGBT community with many state Democratic party establishments. Democratic voters in Virginia gubernatorial primary rejected the candidate promising to repeal the anti-same sex marriage amendment to the Virginia constitution. Instead, they chose the “moderate” Democrat, who voted for the anti-same sex marriage amendment in the state legislature, is endorsed by the NRA, and talks incessantly about his “Christian” upbringing. Yes, Democrats in Virginia opted for guns, God and (bashing) gays! And we should support whom???
The Republican Opening:
The New York State Senate is currently grappling with legislation to legalize same-sex marriage. The New York House has already passed this legislation, and Governor Patterson is a long-standing supporter and tireless advocate for marriage equality. Opposition to marriage equality has been strongest among conservative Democrats (led by State Senator Diaz, a Pentecostal Pastor); their opposition has been instrumental in blocking a vote on equality legislation. Republican votes are needed to bring forward marriage equality in New York
New York’s Republican politicians are showing some signs of evolving on the issue. The former Republican Senate leader Bruno (retired in 2008) has switched positions and come out publicly for marriage equality, stating simply that it was time. The current Republican leader Senator Skelos has declared his opposition, but has released his caucus to vote their conscience. For the sake of the GOP’s future, they should do so pass marriage equality with all deliberate speed!
The evangelical base of the GOP will remain hostile to marriage equality, but is unlikely to bolt the party over this issue. They will remain at odds with Democrats over a range of issues, most notably choice. Moreover, there is a strong conservative argument for promoting monogamy among the LGBT community (although logic and evangelical hatred of gays seldom mix).
The LGBT community itself is too small numerically to matter to the GOP, or for that matter, to the Democratic establishment. But hostility to gays and lesbians is symbolic of contempt for civil rights, and its embrace of governmental intrusion in the private lives of citizens. This is extremely distasteful to younger voters, who strongly support marriage equality. Even younger voters who are conservative are likely to have gay and lesbian friends. Younger voters see the issue of one of civil rights, personal freedom and basic decency.
By embracing racial equality and desegregation, the Democratic party not only acquired the abiding loyalty of African Americans, and many other minorities, it established itself among liberal white voters as the party that encourages diversity. This hurt the party badly, particularly in the South, as older white voters abandoned the party in droves for the GOP. But fifty years later, demography is moving in the Democrats favor, making them the party of nearly everyone who isn’t angry, older, religious and white.
By embracing LGBT rights, especially marriage equality, the GOP can similarly break out of its box as the permanent regional minority party. The party can connect more immediately with younger voters, and over time, be better positioned to challenge the Democratic mantle with other minority voters. Moreover, it can do so while still advocating a message that is largely consistent with traditional core Republican values of liberty, personal responsibility, small government and the promotion of family. By standing up strongly, in New York, for marriage equality, and actually delivering it, the GOP may be able to reverse its regional decline in the Northeast.
Game changing opportunities like this are rare. Perhaps Steve Schmidt, Ted Olson, and other leading lights of the GOP should start calling the New York Senate GOP caucus.