Like many of you, including buhdydharma, I have been troubled and disappointed by some of Obama's early moves when it comes to issues we care about. So I think buhdydharma is right to ask the question, "what happens if Obama loses the Left"?
Unfortunately, all my experience watching and working in politics tells me the answer is: not much.
If Obama loses the Left, other political factions will quickly fill the void--factions that we won't necessarily like. So the trick for the Issue Left is to continue to be relevant in policy debates, continue to hold influence with this administration, while at the same time not alienating it to the point where other factions are welcome in our place.
More after the jump.
What leads me to this conclusion? Two words (or rather, one name): Bill Clinton.
In 1992, Bill Clinton ran on a fairly progressive (for a Southern governor) platform. Not Walter Mondale-liberal, but fairly progressive overall. He made promises to the GLBT community. He promised (and tried, and failed to deliver) health care reform; he accused Poppy Bush of "coddling dictators"; he called his campaign manifesto "Putting People First," a clear nod at progressive populism; you get the picture.
In 1996, Bill Clinton ran as a very different candidate: he ran on balancing the budget, school uniforms, V-chips, a record of passing welfare reform, etc. Again, you get the picture.
Clinton had banked enough good will with the political middle and the Center Left that he didn't need monolithic support from the Issue Left to win--let alone win big. There's more than one way to get to 365 and a 10M-vote margin. I suspect if the Issue Left deserts Obama, he'll find another way.
And that's when we get screwed. Because guess who'll fill that vacuum? PACs. Lobbyists. Corporations. Wealthy donors. The ever-present Center-Left.
The Republican brand has been so tarnished that middle-of-the-road voters and the Center-Left won't consider voting for another GOPosaur for a while at the presidential level--especially with the jokers now on deck for the 2012 nomination. So the bulk of the non-Issue Left but not batshit-crazy Right slice of the American political pie will side with Obama.
But if they're the only ones at the table because we, the Issue Left, have decided to throw a hissy fit and hold our breath because we're not getting every single thing we want right now -- please excuse me while I duck to avoid your shoes, vegetables, pies, bullets, etc. -- then the only ones at the table will be those status quo-types: the Liebermans, Nelsons, Landrieus and Specters of the world who are interested in only nibbling at the edges of our problems, at best.
So again, the trick is to retain and enhance our influence over this president, who is essentially a progressive at heart, if not the revolutionary many conjured him in their heads to be, so that the CL and not-batshit-crazy Right don't grab the table all for themselves. Because believe me, if we leave the table, Obame will find another way to get reelected--a way that we won't like.
How do you stay at the table and grab more and more of the seats? You keep calling for the change he promised. You call, write, meet with Congress, rally, lobby the White House, donate to MoveOn and ActBlue, etc. You keep reminding Obama of what he said during the campaign and make it very clear you expect him to live up to it. You tell him at every turn that you expect him to do better. BUT, you also make it clear you know he's coming from the right place, that he's trying his best, that you understand he has a million competing priorities and that you want to help him do what he knows is the right thing.
It would also help to pat his back now and then for, I dunno, passing the biggest domestic spending package in recent memory, nominating Sotomayor, passing the equal pay for women and kids' health insurance laws, instituting equal benefits for same-sex partners in the State Dept., jumpstarting the Middle East peace process and reaching out to Iran, etc. Do you like it when your boss tells you you're doing a good job? Politicians like it too!
Some tactics I would suggest are, um, unhelpful: constantly tarring Obama as being "just like Bush"; calling his supporters here and elsewhere as "Obamatons"and accusing us of having a cult of personality; and threatening to abandon him after just 5% of his (potential) two-year term has elapsed, among other things. When you consider that he still has 95% of his time in office to go, I think it's what he's accomplished so far is remarkable.
If I were Obama and I kept hearing my "friends" accusing me of being just like Bush (the ultimate epithet in Leftist politics) and threatening to abandon me after only 147 days in office, why on Earth would I want to keep hanging out with such "friends"? That may seem petty, but human beings -- which Obama is, contrary to what some might think -- are like that.
I care as much about the issue of the Issue Left as anyone here. I care so much that I've dedicated virtually all my professional life to working on such causes as universal health care and climate change, probably pissing away hundreds of thousands of dollars in potential earnings in the process. And I experience no shame in telling you that the way to make headway in all these issues is NOT to insult this president, NOT to call him "same as Bush" and certainly not threatening to abandon him in the middle of the fight. I believe he's a decent human being trying to do the right thing, and he believes he need to get reelected to do so. And if he can't depend on us for that when the chips are down, he'll find some other way. Believe me, he will.
PS -- I'm aware that buhdydharma has not used many, if any, of the negative tactics I outline in the "don'ts" so that section is NOT aimed directly at him. I respect his contribution to the debate and know he's coming from the right place, just like me (and Obama!)
UPDATE: Comments below prompt me to issue this clarification: I'm NOT saying he's naturally inclined to rely on the CL and such. I'm saying that if some in the IL keep dissing/insulting him or threatening to abandon him, he may rely instead on other factions as means of pushing a less progressive agenda--still somewhat progressive as you would expect a decent Dem to do, but not nearly as progressive as we would like. Hence our need to stay in the game and keep pushing while not alienating.