Two weeks ago, I mentioned that Sarah Palin hasn't made up her mind on whether she'll run for reelection in 2010. Well, now Politico reports that many Alaska political insiders consider Palin's current silence as a sign she may not run in order to--wait for it--play a bigger role on the national scene.
At least one potential opponent is pretty sure Palin's out.
"There is nothing that she has done that leads me to believe she will seek reelection," said Andrew Halcro, a former Republican state legislator who ran for governor as an independent candidate in 2006 and is weighing another run. "If you’re Palin, once you’ve flown first class, you don’t go back to coach. She’s been to the show and certainly seemed to like it there."
You may remember Halcro for his blogs on the Walt Monegan affair.
Five Republicans are taking a look at the race, including Halcro and Frank Murkowski's lieutenant governor, Loren Leman. Normally, if an incumbent runs for reelection, s/he would clear the field in the primary--unless said incumbent's numbers are taking a dive. Palin currently enjoys a 54 percent approval rating, according to Hays Research. Pretty impressive--until you consider the same pollster had her at 86 percent in January 2008. In addition, two very credible Democrats--Ethan Berkowitz (who nearly beat Don Young in 2008) and Hollis French (lead state senate investigator in the Monegan affair) are also taking a look.
The state party is already urging Palin--its nominal leader for the moment--to make up her mind.
State Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich is urging Palin to decide earlier so that in the event she decides against a second term, GOP candidates will have enough time to organize their campaigns.
"I had earlier encouraged the governor to not take a position yet, but in the interest of Republicans holding the seat, I hope she makes the decision by early fall," Ruedrich said.
Still, Ruedrich is pretty confident that governor's mansion will stay Republican in any event.
If Palin runs, "we will win," Ruedrich said, adding that he is confident another Republican would win, given the GOP’s 500,000-voter registration advantage.
Um, Randy? Don't you remember that prior to Palin winning election, Alaska had never had two Republican governors serve a full four-year term? Or that Democrats held the governorship for 16 of the previous 20 years prior to Murkowski winning in 2002?
Politico notes one other factor that could work against Palin running for governor--Alaska's tough ethics laws. Alaska places very low limits on how much money a gubernatorial candidate can raise outside the state, so Palin's national fundraising base won't amount to a hill of beans if she decides to run for reelection. However, an unidentified Dem thinking of jumping into the race thinks that even if she announces late, she can still raise scads of money across the state.
Another factor working against Palin running for reelection--the shortened presidential primary calendar. Should she run and win, she'd only have a few months before having to grease the wheels for a presidential bid. A former Palin staffer thinks that would give potential opponents a tailor-made angle to attack her--"Are you going to get elected and then take off for Iowa?"
My gut feeling wants her to run--if only because I'm hoping she'll get bloodied up enough she won't be able to run for president in 2012. I know, I know, a Palin candidacy would be a gift from the gods for us. But Palin is guaranteed to turn out the fundies in large numbers, or at the very least get large numbers of them registered. Had Palin not been a factor, I'd like to think we would have flipped West Virginia and Arkansas and given McCain heartburn in Georgia and South Carolina.