There's alot of handwringing going on right now about getting health care passed before the August break. The thinking goes, if nothing passes before then then it will never get passed. Republicans and Blue dogs are dragging their feet, (for different reasons) hoping that if they delay long enough, Health Care Reform will go down for another generation. They are hoping if they put it off, Congresspeople will go home to their districts and hear from their constituents that they don't want "government health care" and they "like their private insurance just fine thanks.
They are wrong.
It is still likely that we will have a bill before the August recess. (If anything motivates congress to move, it's the thought of losing their vacation time). I don't worry too much about recent polls showing that Americans don't like Obama's health care bill, because frankly, nobody knows what it is! Once there is an actual bill and actual numbers, polls will mean more than they do today.
Now for turning conventional wisdom on it's head:
If this bill doesn't pass before the August recess, it will be bad for Republicans and blue dog Dems! They will go home and face the wrath of an angry public who voted for change in November. We are expecting health care reform to pass because Democrats have the White House and huge majorities in the Congress. If nothing is done Blue dogs and congress in general will see their approval ratings tank to Republican levels.
We can make sure that happens. We can make sure that regardless of the talking head advantage the opposition has, regardless of their rhetoric,their money, or their support from the media, every single member of congress will hear from us (and our friends and family) if this bill is stalled.
The fact is, Republicans are using a 1994 playbook. It won't work in 2009.