Gov. Steve Beshear is making a move to take over the Kentucky State Senate by appointing Republican State Senators to high paying state jobs. He appointed Charlie Borders to the Public Service Commission. A special election is set for August 25. The Democrat has the edge in District 18.
There is also talk that the appointment of St. Sen. Dan Kelly to a judgeship will happen in the fall. His district could also fall to Democrats.
KENTUCKY STATE SENATE RACES 2010
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Gov. Steve Beshear is making a move to take over the Kentucky State Senate by appointing Republican State Senators to high paying state jobs. He appointed Charlie Borders to the Public Service Commission. A special election is set for August 25. The Democrat has the edge in District 18.
There is also talk that the appointment of St. Sen. Dan Kelly to a judgeship will happen in the fall. His district could also fall to Democrats.
With the open seat for Louisville Metro Mayor, St. Sen. Dan Seum is a possibility for that job, leaving a potential open seat in South Louisville.
If Democrats gain the Borders and Kelley seats, the Republican number drops to 20 (with Leeper). This leaves the possibility that a couple of rouge Republicans could join with Democrats to control the Senate, much like what happened when five rogue Democrats gave Republicans effective control of the State Senate in 1999 in response to Gov. Paul Patton’s changes to the state worker’s comp fund, which adversely effected Eastern Kentucky coal mine counties.
If Democrats could win the State Senate, it gives them complete control of redistricting, which could lead to a Democrat in the 1st and 5th Districts.
Current Senate Makeup
Republicans 20 (21)
Democrats 16
Independent 1 (votes with the GOP)
Vacant Seat 1
Due to the Kentucky Constitution, only Fayette, Jefferson and Kenton Counties may be split in the State Senate.
Only even numbered seats are up in 2010. Most of the Louisville seats are odd numbered and elected in 2008.
* Move for Democrats
# Move for Republicans
DISTRICT 2: Bob Leeper (I/R)
Ballard, Marshall, McCracken
Tossup
This a swing district in the Purchase, centered on Paducah. Leeper has won each of his last two elections by less than 100 votes. Leeper, who is more or less a Republican, could face a repeat of 2006, where he faced a Democrat and a Republican. Leeper seems to be back in with Senate President David Williams, given that he is going to be the new chair of the powerful Appropriations and Revenue Committee. If Democrats can find a candidate not named Carroll Hubbard, they can have an excellent chance here, especially if Republicans nominate a candidate, making it a three way race. There are reports that Gov. Beshear is trying to get Paducah attorney Glenn Denton to enter the race. He has been Chairman of the McCracken County Democratic Party and President of the Paducah area Chamber of Commerce. It will be interesting to see who appears at the annual Fancy Farm Picnic on August 1 for this race.
DISTRICT 4: Dorsey Ridley (D)
Caldwell, Crittenden, Henderson, Livingston, Union, Webster
Solid Democrat
This is a heavily Democratic district where Ridley will face little competition.
DISTRICT 6: Jerry Rhoads (D)
Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Ohio
Solid Democrat
This is a heavily Democratic district where Rhoads will face little competition.
DISTRICT 8: David Boswell (D)
Daviess, McLean
Likely Democrat
Boswell narrowly failed in his bid for Congress last year, but carried his district, and should be re-elected easily, unless a strong opponent emerges.
DISTRICT 10: Elizabeth Tori (R)
Hardin, Extreme Southwestern Jefferson County
Likely Republican
Democrats perennially target Tori, in this Republican-leaning district, but always come up short. There is no reason to see why that will not be the case again, except, Tori will be 74 in 2010, the oldest GOP member (and 2nd oldest Senator after Julian Carroll), so an open seat is a possibility, which would lean Republican, given Hardin County voting patterns.
DISTRICT 12: Alice Forgy Kerr (R)
Southern Fayette County
Leans Republican
This is the Republican part of Lexington. She faced a tough opponent in State Supreme Court Justice Keller in 2006, but held on. She starts off with an advantage in 2010, despite Fayette County voting for Obama in 2008. However, Forgy-Kerr may face problems in her vote against slots at tracks in her horse country district.
DISTRICT 14: Majority Leader Dan Kelly (R) likely to resign
Special Election not set
Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor, Washington
*Tossup
The are rumors that Kelly will be appointed seems to be true. The strongest Republican would have been Rep. David Floyd of Democratic-leaning Nelson County, but he has said he will stay in the House where he is the 2nd ranking Republican. Republicans now are looking to Rep. Jimmy Higdon of Marion County, which is only a small part of the district. Democrats are looking to two Bardstown residents, former Nelson Judge-Executive Jodie Haydon and Nicky Rapier, whose father was Kenny Rapier, a former House Majority Leader. This is a swing district. It vote strongly for McCain (as most of Kentucky did), backed Mitch McConnell by 6% (the same as his statewide margin), but backed David Boswell over Rep. Brett Guthrie. Of the five State House members, four are Republican.
DISTRICT 16: Senate President David L. Williams (R)
Clinton, Cumberland, McCreary, Monroe, Wayne, Whitley
Solid Republican
David Williams may have the most Republican State Senate District. He will be re-elected easily.
DISTRICT 18: Charlie Borders (R), resigning
Special Election August 25
Bracken, Carter, Greenup, Lewis, Mason, Robertson
* Leans Democrat
Borders is resigning to take a seat on the Kentucky Public Service Commission. The Republican nominee will be dermatologist George Ditty from Greenup County. The Democratic nominee will be Rep. Robin Webb, who represents Carter and Lewis Counties. This district has a democratic lean. All counties in the district are represented by a Democrat in the State House and these counties kept Ken Lewis in Congress in the 4th Congressional District from 1998 to 2004. A major issue here will be gambling. The Republican opposes it, the Democrat supports it. While this is a very conservative district, it runs along the border with Ohio, which just legalized some forms of gambling. Rep. Webb is an impressive candidate and probably starts out with a slight edge.
DISTRICT 20: Gary Tapp (R) is retiring
Bullitt, Shelby, Spencer
*Likely Republican
This district consists of most of the suburbs of Louisville, which lean Republican. Tapp recently announced he is retiring. Given the Republican lean of the district, the GOP should hold this district. Tapp has already endorsed Shelby County agriculture lead Paul Hornback.
DISTRICT 22: Tom Buford (R)
Boyle, Garrard, Jessamine, Extreme Southern Fayette County
Solid Republican
This is a Republican district centered on the southern suburbs of Lexington. Republicans should have little problem here. Buford was the only State Senate Republican in the A&R Committee to vote for slots, which is a plus in this horse country district.
DISTRICT 24: Katie Kratz Stine (R)
Campbell, Pendleton
Solid Republican
This is a mostly suburban Cincinnati district (Campbell County), which is heavily Republican.
DISTRICT 26: Ernie Harris (R)
Carroll, Henry, Oldham, Trimble, Northeastern Jefferson County
*Likely Republican
This district is dominated by heavily Republican Oldham County and Northeast Louisville, and any Republican should win here easily, despite the Democratic voting nature of Carroll, Trimble, and Henry County. This is a horse country district, and Harris could be hurt by his opposition to slots at race tracks.
DISTRICT 28: R.J. Palmer (D)
Bath, Bourbon, Clark, Harrison, Montgomery, Nicholas
Solid Democrat
Republicans packed Democrats into this district when they drew it and it will stay that way in 2010.
DISTRICT 30: Brandon Smith (R)
Bell, Harlan, Leslie, Perry
Tossup
This a strongly Democratic district that Republicans won because of excessive interfering from Governor Beshear to fill the seat of his Lt. Gov. in a special election in 2008. Democrats have to win this seat if they want to win back the Senate. It may be the top Democratic target.
DISTRICT 32: Mike Reynolds (D)
Butler, Warren
Tossup
Winning this seat held by U.S. Rep. Brett Guthrie was a pleasant surprise to Democrats in 2009. Republicans were silly enough to nominate J. Marshall Hughes, part of the Ernie Fletcher scandal, and he lost. Democrats must hold this seat if they want to win back the Senate. Warren County is Republican at the national level, but Democrats can do well locally. However, Butler County is among the most Republican counties in the state. This will be the top GOP target.
DISTRICT 34 Minority Leader Ed Worley (D)
Lincoln, Madison, Rockcastle
Likely Democrat
Worley has been popular, but two of the three counties (though they have less than half the district’s population) are strongly Republican, so he always has to be on his toes.
DISTRICT 36: Julie Denton (R)
Eastern Jefferson County
Leans Republican
Denton’s seat is one of the few districts in Kentucky where Republicans actually hold a registration edge. She is vulnerable because of herself, being way too far to the right and controversies she has been involved in, including the recent Medicaid contract controversy which graced the front page of the Courier-Journal. This is still a tough seat for Democrats. However, this is a district where Democrats could use slots at horse tracks to gain an edge.
DISTRICT 38: Dan "Malano" Seum (R)
Southern Jefferson County
Leans Republican
When Seum switched parties in 1999, it gave Republicans control of the Senate. In turn, Republicans gave him a more Republican seat. This seat includes Democratic leaning southwest Jefferson County, along with upper class southeast Jefferson County. Democrats always seem to target Seum, but fall short, including a not so great candidate in 2006.
However, Seum is mulling a run for Metro Mayor. If he runs, Democratic chances go up, but Republicans still have an advantage.